BOT Presale Tracking (September 18). Thursday Comp: Transformers One ($2.68M), The Wild Robot ($4.14M), and Joker: Folie á Deux ($6.70M).

BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking

Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)

BoxOfficeReport Previews

Quorum Updates:

• September 18

• September 16

• September 13

• September 12 Weekly Unaided Awareness

• September 12

• September 9

• September 5

• September 5 Weekly Unaided Awareness

Never Let Go

• filmpalace ($0.28M THU Speak No Evil Comp (September 17).)

The Substance

• el sid (The Substance, counted today for Thursday, September 19, had 40 sold tickets with shows in 3 of "my" 7 theaters (in the AMC in Miami, Michigan and LA). 10 days left. Because this isn't very telling, I added two other theaters of a similar size – the AMC Barton Creek Square 14 in Texas and the AMC Bay Street 16 in San Francisco. In these 5 theaters it had already 73 sold tickets. Loose comps (all movies counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = The Substance has 7 days left and always with shows in 6 or 7 theaters) Thanksgiving (1M from previews) had 184 sold tickets, The Invitation (775k) had 96, Crawdads (2.3M) had 123, Saw X (2M) had 400, M3gan (2.75M) had 274 and Prey for the Devil (660k) had 115 sold tickets. Quite nice presales so far. I wonder how many people have already heard about this movie (I discovered it this afternoon because of the thread here and also think that the trailer is very interesting) (September 9).)

• filmpalace ($0.36M THU Speak No Evil Comp (September 17).)

• Flopped (Is anyone tracking its presales? Here in LA I see lots of tickets sold, but again it's LA (September 12).)

• Ryan C (Everything I said about this film yesterday pretty much stands today. The buzz just keeps this moving at a much stronger pace than other films of this nature. For now, it's still doing well and is guaranteed to do more than $1M over this weekend (September 18). I'm just concerned that because of those EA screenings (which are selling well) that most of the people who were going to see the film over the weekend already saw it and see no reason to go back. | A pretty solid increase from last time. More showtimes are being added for both tomorrow's EA screenings and traditional Thursday previews. Deadline is currently projecting this to make $3M over the weekend. Not sure if it'll make it there as the theater count is estimated to be around 1,700 and some business over the weekend could be offset by the amount of people seeing it on Wednesday's EA screenings, but if the strong buzz continues to boost ticket sales, maybe it'll get there (September 17). I still have no idea if this'll lead to a breakout performance, but it's great to see the buzz this movie has been getting continue to drive these ticket sales. I don't think we'd be seeing these kinds of increases if the movie didn't play at any of the recent film festivals (September 15).)

• vafrow (The Substance seems to be getting a decent distribution for Thursday previews around here. 57 of 155 locations within MTC4. And thats only with Thursday previews up. It could get more when they finalize the next week schedule. It's playing at my local which rarely gets anything that isn't getting 1500 screens across North America (outside the South Asian releases) (September 13).)

• VanillaSkies (responding to Flip: That is definitely not true. There are plenty of artsy movies that bomb in NY/LA and never end up expanding beyond because of it. Most theatres in NY/LA have added an additional showtime for Wednesday EA because it’s selling so well. That only happens when interest is there (September 18). It is selling quite well in NYC/LA for its EA showings on Wednesday evening (September 17).)

Transformers One Average Thursday Comp: $2.68M

• DEADLINE (Advance ticket sales are solid from Thursday through Saturday, ahead of last year’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem ($28M 3-day) and Trolls Band Together ($30M) (September 17).)

• AniNate (The Wednesday fan event sales tonight still seem kinda sluggish where I live, guess will have to see if there's any kind of rush closer to showtime (September 18). Not sure if it's been mentioned in this thread yet, but another thing to keep in mind is TFOne previews begin at 5pm Thursday instead of 2pm, so that's another thing that might deflate them by animation comparisons (September 17). Honestly can't say the fan event sales inspire much confidence themselves judging from my region. Unscientific observation but they seem like they ought to have a lot more by now for a $40mil opener (September 15).)

• crazymoviekid ($3.07M THU Comp. Going close to $2.5M (September 17). $2.5M-$3.5M THU range right now (September 17).)

• DAJK (Transformers One’s sales tonight look pretty good. I don’t track EA very often so I don’t really know how to place it. I’m kind of worried it’ll go the route of Lego Ninjago a few years back, but hoping for something at least in the high 30s next weekend (September 14).)

• filmlover (Transformers has pretty much filled up the limited shows near me. If it manages a $40M+ opening I would say the brand has definite drawing power no matter the medium (September 14).)

• filmpalace ($1.1M THU Speak No Evil Comp. The Fan Event screenings have really good sales! That, along with the screenings from last weekend are most likely reducing the demand for the Thursday showings. With how low these Thursday numbers are, I just hope it doesn’t mean the movie might be frontloaded. Either way, I’m hoping for a solid final day tomorrow (September 18). I know Speak No Evil is not a suitable comp for a family flick on a Thursday, but this is all I have right now, so please bear with me while I try to gain some more comps. | I'll take a better look at TOne's numbers later today, but as of now it's Thursday numbers at my theaters are below Speak No Evil's from last week (September 17).)

• Flip ($2.21M THU and $5.35M FRI Comp. Two showtimes are sold out, but these were clearly the result of an anomaly with some large group sales (they weren’t close to selling out before). These are 10 and 11pm showings, so I think I’ll just add the average of the other showings at the same time to get a final number of seats sold (which unfortunately won’t be exact). other than that, pace is still bad. I removed the Borderlands comp since that would show a number ~1m which doesn’t feel representative (September 17). Still not looking good for FRI (September 16). FRI is close to abysmal. | EA must’ve shaved off a HUGE amount of demand for it to be pacing this low (September 15). Tomorrow is really important; it should hopefully sell 10+ tickets (September 14). Yep, no growth (September 13). I don’t think there will be any significant growth for the next 3-4 days (September 11). IO2 really started to ramp up starting tomorrow, hopefully the Transformers ramp up starts after the weekend EA (September 10).)

• jeffthehat ($2.65 THU Comp.)

• Rorschach ($1.44M THU and $5.5M FRI Comp.)

• Ryan C (One last check in with the Wednesday EA screenings that will be happening tonight. Anything between 1,100 and 1,200 seats sold when all is said and done. It's practically the same amount of seats sold (maybe a bit less) than last Saturday's EA screenings, but what's obviously more important is the actual Thursday previews. Once again, walk-ups need to be great if this movie wants to beat those $30M projections right now (September 18). I'm seeing signs of potential strong walk-up business and the Fan Event showings are doing pretty good right now, but Thursday alone isn't showing that many great signs. I still stand by this being a very walk-up heavy movie over the weekend, but hopefully things improve within the next two days. If at least 1,000 seats aren't sold by Thursday when the first preview showings start, then I'll be legitmately concerned (September 17). By the time those first EA screenings start, over 1,000 seats should be sold as acceleration has been at a great pace all week (including new showtimes being added to keep up with demand). Less so about the Fan Event screenings that start on Wednesday, but those sales should accelerate at a good pace within the next few days. At the very least, we should expect a pretty solid EA screening number if Paramount chooses to combine Saturday's sales and Wednesday's sales together. However, the noticeable small jump that actual the Thursday previews have taken since almost a week ago is concerning. I know we're still about a week away from the release date, but this is a bit concerning. I'm not sure whether this indicates that most of this movie's business will come from walk-up business or that all of the Transformers fans will be showing up on either Saturday or Wednesday, but I did expect a slightly bigger jump over the week than just 12% (September 13).)

• TheFlatLannister ($3.08M THU Comp. Pretty sizable drop against comps. Could be just O/U $3M for Thursday previews (+ whatever EA is) (September 18). Yesterday was not good locally to say the least (September 18). Good numbers, could be $4M+ previews with EA (September 16).)

• vafrow ($2.9M THU Comp (including Garfield). Well, it finally got the kick it needed. Later than I hoped, but we're back to something reasonable here, especially if it's indicative of growth curve we'll see as walk ups. Getting to low $3M range, plus strong EA shows puts $4M on the table. Growth is heavily concentrated in the early shows, likely an indication of families showing up. It's important to note that this gained on all comps, including Garfield, which was at such a low baseline that moderate sales at the end were creating a high growth curve. To outpace that is impressive, especially when it was flat yesterday (September 18). responding to AniNate: My experience when looking at those earlier afternoon sales (2PM start vs 5PM) is they make little difference, particularly when schools are in session. It's representing maybe 3-4% of sales, with no certainty that those tickets wouldn't be sold for later shows. | But I haven't seen that confirmed yet for MTC4, so I'm not certain. It's also a Friday promotion, which again, weakens the Thursday preview demand. | Cineplex WED EA freebies giveaway will increase demand for the Wednesday EA shows tomorrow in my data, probably at the expense of the Thursday previews. | I'm in Canada, and Canada is weird. Especially with a small sample. I have personally have more faith in a market like Florida from @TheFlatLannister, but every data point tells us something. I think the EA shows are probably distorting things. That said, the low growth at the end is the most concerning. Even underindexing films usually underindex early but still see late growth to bridge the gap. | This stayed flat when things usual accelerate, and it's getting punished in the comps. To the point where I'm including Garfield in the mix, as there's risk that they could be comparable at the end here. I see it doing well in more predictable markets like Florida, so this should just be a data point, not a definitive prediction. We'll just need to see how final days play out (September 17). I also probably should have thrown in something like Ghostbusters as a comp. Just eyeballing, that's landing at $1.5-2.0M or so. That's probably the market this is aiming for, but probably won't match that up front interest. But should hopefully have a better multiplier over the weekend. | It continues to fall behind comps. It's probably getting to the point of concern, even if numbers don't look as bad throughout thr weekend. What's jumping out to me is that at present most tickets are actually being sold for the late shows. There's lots of singles and pairs, when you'd usually expect smaller groups to dominate for a family film. This needs to start seeing a better acceleration in the next day or so (September 16). If you're looking for positive signs on TOne, Friday sales are looking very good. I don't track beyond previews as a general rule, but a quick count has Friday at 113 tickets sold, which is over 4x current Thursday sales. That's a better than average ratio, and lends itself to the idea that the EA shows have been taking up Thursday demand. | The EA showings were a success, but nothing happening for previews and it's losing ground. I'm hoping it picks up soon (September 15). I just took a peak at sales in my area, sales are up 44% from this morning, and one location that didn't have the EA show added one today it seems. At least, I hadn't noticed it this morning. Nothing quite got to sell out levels, but seating is very limited 10 minutes to showtime (September 14). It's chugging along. The EA sales later today showed great growth over the last two days. I wouldn't be surprised if they sold out with walk ups. If the previews perform similarly, this could really explode at the end, but the community day promotion is probably skewing things a bit for today, so hard to judge (September 14). It finally saw a bit of a bump. I'm hoping that sales get steadier after the EA show tomorrow (September 13).)

• YM! ($5.02M THU Comp. responding to Flip: Yeah seeing similar data from you as my own. Pace is abysmal here. Really wish we had MTC1 or Florida data for larger scope but starting to doubt $30m OW (September 15). Similar thoughts about this as before. Early Access is really driving the ticket sales and should drum up decent business for this and am still thinking around 6m for total previews/40-45m OW. We won't really see momentum until the weekend but am seeing a potential warning sign in North Shore predominantly being the ticket driver, which could mean a weaker diversity skew and walkups (September 11).)

Megalopolis

• ATOM Tickets (Atom Tickets is now giving out free tickets to Megalopolis. Including early IMAX screenings (September 12).

• Charlie Jatinder (For Megalopolis, I will just say they aren't the worst ever I have tracked (September 17).)

• filmpalace (responding to Ryan C: Seeing the same over at my theaters. At T-8, it has the same amount of tickets sold as Speak No Evil's T-3 (September 18).)

• Flip (responding to VanillaSkies: Every artsy movie sells well in NYC and LA though, especially if there’s EA involved. | 25 tickets from only two shows for me. Probably something like 600k for previews (September 17).)

• Relevation (Megalopolis EA kinda selling well near me for day 1 (September 5).)

• Ryan C (I know Megalopolis is probably gonna open badly, but I can tell people that it's not among the worst pre-sales I've ever seen. IMAX showings are actually doing pretty damn well and I'm seeing some regular showings that have a decent amount of seats sold out. I'm sorry, but these people are gonna be surprised when they see that Megalopolis doesn't open below $5M. I can tell you it's already selling much better than The Crow at the same point (September 18).)

• TheFlatLannister ($0.53M THU Comp. Low show count is the biggest red flag for me. Exhibitors have no faith in this. No further updates since I don't expect much to change until T-0. Improvement in sales today, ever so slightly (September 17). Worst presales start I have ever tracked…Wow. Probably won't be tracking this. Completely pointless (September 16).)

• TwoMisfits (Megalopolis is giving 2 free tickets per person for free through Atom…1st come, 1st served, So, I expect a tracking bump when folks look tomorrow…although the tickets are still available, so maybe not that much of a bump… (September 18).)

Wild Robot Average Thursday Comp: $4.14M

• AniNate (At AMC Disney Springs, Wild Robot Thursday previews continue to pace ahead of TFOne in nominal sales. 242 to 235 now (September 17). Someone finally bought a Thursday preview ticket for TWR at my theater so infinite increase there. Friday sales currently at 3/4 total of TFOne. (31 to 41) (September 16). Wild Robot's presales are no slouch themselves and it'll be taking PLF from Transformers its opening weekend (looks like Cinemark theaters starting to come around to that decision too) so I have to imagine TFOne will be having a rough drop its second weekend no matter what. | I did remember I was tracking IF for a bit back in May at Canton and TWR weekend sales… do not look good compared to that movie's pace. It is kinda buried in the Cinemark website compared to where that movie was at T-13 though being the first kids movie out in a long while, so I can only hope it has more of a ramp up when transformers is out of the way and boosted by reviews/wom. | I am thinking whatever the amounts end up being, Wild Robot is gonna have a bigger true weekend than Transformers One. Its Friday and Saturday presales are consistently close in nominal numbers in a lot of the theaters I've checked, and at the AMC Disney Springs which often has the highest demand for kids films in the country, its Friday and Saturday presales are still ahead of Transformers One's; well ahead in the case of their respective wide opening Saturdays at 140 to 118 (September 14). At my theater is while there's still no Thursday preview sales, there's already more Friday sales than there are for Transformers One. Yes I'm sure the EA and fan event taking much of the immediate interest there but still, definitely feel like TWR is gonna be much more of a weekend performer wherever its Thursday previews end up at. | responding to Charlie Jatinder: That does kinda track with what I've been seeing at my theater that's usually the most presale driven in the area. Still zero sales for the Thursday previews but decent amount of Friday sales. Just one theater though so if it's pacing better elsewhere that does seem encouraging. Appears to be more upfront demand in the bigger markets (September 12).)

• Charlie Jatinder (My Wild Robot sales are weak for THU unlike most here other. FRI is very good but sales are unusual with one odd show getting most of sale in some of the locs while rest are empty (September 11). replying to keysersoze123: IDK. That seems VERY strong to me. Friday is around half of Inside Out 2 first day (September 6).)

• filmpalace (All tickets that are sold so far are coming from Dolby Cinema showings at one of the two theaters (September 14).)

• Flip ($5.33M THU Comp. Friday presales are 2.13x of Transfomers One (September 17). It’s pacing well, but it’s almost surely not reaching 5m with how it’s currently looking (it only looks so because IO2 underinvested a decent amount + wild robot might overindex a bit) (September 15). It’s pacing well (September 14). That final trailer must’ve really helped it, I still think it will cool down but this was really strong (September 10). It’s doing ok, probably high 2s-low 3s for previews (September 9).)

• keysersoze123 (I would have thought this being based on a book, there would be some interest. But presales so far are meh. Let us where it is close to release (September 5).)

• TheFlatLannister ($3.57M THU Comp. This is really good. Could be a $35M+ OW (September 11).)

• vafrow ($3.5M THU comp. It's tough to really assess impact of Tiff. For downtown theatres, definitely there's impact. Suburbs are a different story. The vast majority of people in the suburbs aren't even considering TIFF. The festival is much less the People's festival it started at. And a major studio kids movie is also pretty rare for TIFF. There's not a lot of other case studies to go off of. I would have guessed that the discussion of the film through local media coverage would have given it a bump. But I'm also not too concerned. Of all the bigger films on the calendar over the next month or so, this has the least need to open big. And my market being off from others is pretty normal. We'll see how it does down the stretch. | Mine is very tepid, with no sales in recent days, so not worth the update. But expectations on a non franchise kids film is so small, that it's hard to read too much into it when you have a small sample size like I do. But Friday and Saturday sales aren't much better. I want this to do well. But I'm not seeing enough cause for enthusiasm on my side (September 12). As a market that could conceivably could have benefited from direct word of mouth for the premiere yesterday, I saw no new sales in my area this morning (September 9). Standard caveat that low numbers early on are subject to wild variances. Most interesting element is format distribution. This has a lot of premium screens and 3D to drive ticket prices. Only a single regular non 3D showing, and it's a matinee. But, they're not charging their premium that they usually do for bigger films on opening weekend. 3D is literally the only option at my local. If I end up seeing this with my kids, I'm waiting until more showtimes are added for a non 3D showing (September 6).)

• WebSurfer (Looks like movie theater chains are acknowledging the ticket sales for The Wild Robot now (September 10).)

• YM! ($4.14M THU Comp. 0.875x of Transformers One. I took note of its T-18 which was also the same tickets sold as it has now. Though again mountains are being made out of molehills, even with less PLF than TFO and one of the biggest theaters stateside missing, the fact that this is doing on par with Transformers: One is impressive. This is very great, parroting the 3-4m previews potential for this. Could be the first post-pandemic original animation breakout (September 11).)

Joker: Folie á Deux Average Thursday Comp excluding Flip: $6.70M

• DEADLINE (Joker: Folie à Deux in tracking looks similar to the first movie, strong with men over 25 (they showed up at 41% on part one). Unaided awareness is strongest with men over 25, followed men under 25 and women over 25. Presales are big in the cities now, I understand, which is provoking some exhibitors to forecast a $90M start (September 12).)

• AnthonyJPHer (So I tracked Joker 2 a little bit across 3 Cinemark locations and the sales are pretty weak. Didn’t even hit 50 tickets. woof. but maybe it’ll pick up. The day isn’t even over, so we’ll see (September 9).)

• Caption Action 3 (Open caption pre-sales are horrible at this point. So far have documented 52 screentimes, and of those, there's a basement-level ticket to screentime ratio of 0.17. Sales will need to really pick up closer to opening to get this to a respectable number (September 18).)

• Charlie Jatinder ($4.34M THU Comp. What makes it even worse is that 108 of that 446 is just from 1 IMAX screen, which is way higher lopsided than four out of five above (September 11).)

• filmpalace (Steady growth these past few days (September 17).)

• Flip ($16.05M THU and $48.8M FRI comp. Added more FRI comps, Trap* overindexed (looking like Joker will do the same), and Romulus had a very slow start so I want to see how Joker paces versus that .this was Trap’s first day of sales so I’d expect this number to drop. | It’s surprising how good the THU pace has been considering there hasn’t been anything like reviews dropping or new trailers/ promotions *(September 17). Still on good pace **(September 16). Deadpool grew 26.9% before the next time I checked it (T-13), Joker should look to around match that. | Still pacing well (September 15). Slower day today, yesterday was weird then. I think Deadpool comp is undershooting it a bit since that seems like a more front loaded movie (+ it had a much longer window), but on the other hand it’s also more walk up friendly. I only checked Deadpool sporadically, but in the next 5 days it grew 8.65%, which I think Joker 2 can comfortably surpass (would need to sell 26 tickets) (September 14). Strong growth. Probably a regional thing though, since Joker likely pulls in both the NYC “art house” crowd and the GA comic book fans (September 13). Sales starting to slow down, today should’ve been a bit higher though due to the ad that aired late last night during the debate (September 11). Tomorrow I’ll switch to T-x for Beetlejuice. This was a good jump, maybe helped a bit by the ad that played during the debate (but possibly the effects of that will be felt tomorrow). Show count is still lower than I would’ve liked. It’s interesting the disparity between my numbers and @TheFlatLannister’s. His T-23 Beetlejuice comp is way under 1x, whereas for me Joker 2 is already equal with where Beetlejuice was at T-11 (September 10).)

• jeffthehat (fwiw I'm seeing what everyone else is for Joker in Indiana. Sales are about half of Dune 2 at T-21. What's worse is Dune 2 was selling around 30 tickets/day at the bottom of its U-curve and Joker sold 24 tickets since yesterday (September 12).)

• JonathanMB (Just from an early cursory glance at my local multiplexes Joker is selling pretty well at premium screens for being on sale for just a few hours. And Lady Gaga just shared a "Get Tickets Now" ad on her social media a few minutes ago (83M on Twitter, 57M on Instagram), so that could help give sales a boost (September 9).)

• keysersoze123 (One interesting Metric is show count at AMC Empire 25. 1st movie had 52 show times listed on Day 1 of presales itself. I see only 14 for the sequel but it has 2 additional weeks of presales. | Not a good comp. but it will be worse than Flash Day 1 sales as well. May be that is optimal at this point along with other DCEU disasters last year like Aqua bro 2. | While its not a good comp, its Day 1 at MTC1 will be worse than Marvels. Joker 2 wont come close to 1st movie OW. | IMAX Monday shows are still limited compared to Batman early shows. That had 2 days of early shows across all PLF formats. It did 4m+ early BO. This wont be close for sure. | Joker would be bigger than Beetlejuice 2 D1 for sure. But that is a low benchmark for Joker. | Only comp would be Batman. But that movie started with uber strong sales for early shows (selling out many as soon it started) and above average to good on OD sales for Thursday. Plus release for Batman was way bigger. You could add Dune 2 comps but even that had significant early show sales. This has to be among the few "big" openers without any early shows. FYI Batman started with 65K sales for thursday and it had already sold close to 50K for early shows by then as well. If I have to make a guess Joker 2 would be lucky to hit 25K at MTC1 OD sales. Really bad IMO. | Not great. We have to wait and see but this is not a MCU level sales. That said we have to wait until end of day to see how big it is relative to other 100m openers. For now showcount itself is just ok 3479 shows at MTC1 and 2283 at MTC2 (that is lower than Beetlejuice). I started tracking during the 1st movie but I was looking at smaller sets of theaters across cities plus 1st movie had just 11 days of presales. It looked very brisk from the start back then (September 9).)

• RichWS (Checked the three big theaters closest to me here in Rhode Island (including the Providence IMAX) and Thursday/Friday are ROUGH. IMAX has sold 7 tickets total for the three Thursday shows. At least the 7:15 Friday show is doing okay (September 9).)

• Ryan C (It's good that the pace isn't just staying static from last week when tickets when on sale, but I don't think this is strong enough to not be concerned if this is headed for a low opening. Almost all of the EA showings are sold out (I wouldn't be surprised if 100% capacity is reached within the next week), but the Thursday showings are still lagging. Showings that should be sold out or at least really close to selling out just aren't. Like I said last week, the hope is that this doesn't play like a traditional fan-driven comic-book movie and has stronger walk-up business as we get closer to the release date. We shouldn't rule that out, but this is gonna have to work real hard within the next two-and-a-half weeks to make up for a weak pre-sales start (Sep. 16).)

• TalismanRing (So far not so good. | I didn't track Joker out this far (I only started the Monday the week before it opened): Joker's first 11 days out it had higher pre-sales of comparable CBM (Venom 2 and Shang-Chi), by it's last week was even more front loaded in terms of pre-sales (September 10).)

• TheFlatLannister ($6.33M THU Florida Comp. Flash had stronger presales than what Joker 2 is currently seeing. Flash actually had okay/good presales up til the final week where it collapsed. EA was also really strong if I remember correctly. | Anyways presales I currently have aren’t showing an acceleration or a collapse. It’s just flat right now (September 15). Even if it had some crazy late acceleration (no indication of that so far as all the big time ramp ups for this year already had strong early presales), it would still likely miss $10M previews, therefore missing $70M+ OW (September 14). This is a Flash/The Marvels 2.0 imo. Summer 2024 films did have really great late business but those were relatively well received out of the gate. | Good recovery yesterday, bad day today (September 12). A $70M+ opening would require $10M+ previews, maybe even more. Not seeing anything close to that based on various data from various trackers (September 12). $5.98M Orlando THU Comp. Ehhh things could be worse I guess. Still a massive failure so far. Could be a $45M-$55M opening from what i'm seeing… (September 11). Less than 3/4 of The Marvels is insanity. Just big yikes. Show count also really low in Orlando. | They suck. Nothing is set in stone, but yeah can't see a way to $100M, because that would need over $15M in previews. Not even seeing double digits right now. | ROOF BIG YIKES. Definitely not anywhere close to a $100M opener as things look right now. Not even sure if this is a $60M type of OW. Will almost certainly decrease from Joker 2019 OW (September 10).)

• Tinalera (Didnt get any of the Mon or Wed Preview days. 19 days out kind of hard to say how things are going. There really hasnt been much promotion (that Ive seen around this area, others may vary). Kind of quiet really (September 15).)

• vafrow ($0.6M EA and $5.8M THU Comp. This has maintained a steady pace all week, on the higher end of my expectations. It has increased against comps (September 18). MCU is usually the prototypical front loaded property for advance sales, so lagging The Marvels at this stage isn't the end of the world. Its probably not going to catch up on mine, but it can close the gap. | Growth is staying in a nice healthy range. The comps I do have at this stage started earlier, so were closer to the bottom of the U at the time, while Joker still has first week momentum. Still, it's not bad. Note, as I saw a few people here and elsewhere try to extrapolate this. This isn't a huge acceleration or anything. It's just good, decent growth after a very slow start (September 15). Slight progress. Not bad, when I feared it could spiral. The EA shows still show a lot of strength, which is probably hurting demand on previews (September 14). The problem is that the Dune 2 comp seems almost unfair. It overperformed in Canada, particularly because of the imax screens. | I miscalculated the days to release, so I've adjusted to reflect that it's T-21, and switched over the comps. The films it's comping decently too all had later starts though, so it looks pretty bad. The Marvels coming on line doesn't help. It's worth pointing out that The Marvels likely overindexed here due to demographics. Beetlejuice coming down with the shift to T minus is interesting. I'll likely keep it as a comp, as it's essentially what Joker needs ($9.8M comp currently) to keep pace with to stay on track for the $70M opening circulated by the trades (September 13). I kept D level comps, since a lot of them don't kick in again until around T-15, some a bit sooner. I figure I'll not update to the weekend, where I'll have a different mix of options. I threw Beetlejuice into the average. It's not distorting as badly, and once I shift to T minus, it'll actually be a useful comp. Overall, this was a decent day. Some movement in the right direction, but nothing drastic (September 12).)

• YM! ($10.32M THU Comp. Though the non-CBM comparisons are solid, it does seem to be underperforming for a CBM here pretty badly with the bulk of the sales coming from Majestic. Especially one with a clear fanbase and the first doing very well in presales. The best it can hope is that it perform not like a fan driven franchise and climbs enough for a 65m OW but for now, thinking 7m previews for an OW within the 50m range (September 11).)

Piece by Piece

• vafrow (Piece by Piece is up for sale on MTC4, but there's only two locations showing it in all of the Greater Toronto Area, and neither are in my radius. I don't think this has huge commercial appeal or anything, but what's the point of this if it isn't getting a moderate release (September 18).)

Saturday Night

• misterpepp (The NY/LA tickets went on sale today. Nationwide expansion tix still go on sale the same aforementioned date (September 23) (September 11).)

Terrifier 3

• CompoundTheGains (What do people make of Terrifier 3 pre-sales? Universal Cinema AMC at CityWalk Hollywood with 248 tickets sold opening weekend. AMC Burbank 16 with 218 tickets sold opening weekend. AMC’s in CA for first showing only of Thursday night: Norwalk—over 60 tickets sold, Montclair and Ontario both over 50, Orange, Fullerton, City of Industry all over 40 tickets sold for first opening showing. Edinburg Texas AMC with over 60 tickets sold in first Thursday showing. Lake Buena Vista Florida AMC close to 70 tickets sold for first Thursday showing. Methuen MA AMC 50+ tickets first showing Thursday. Danvers MA over 40 tickets. You find these numbers scattered throughout the country and still being over 3 weeks from opening (September 18).)

Smile 2

• Boxofficerules (Smile 2 tickets are up for sale at my local (September 12).)

Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated September 8):

SEPTEMBER

• (Sep. 19) THU Previews [Never Let Go + The Substance + Transformers One]

• (Sep. 20) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Blue Beetle + Batman '89 + Batman Forever + Batman: Mask of the Phantasm]

• (Sep. 20) Opening Day [Whiplash Re-Release]

• (Sep. 21) Opening Day [Super-Man: The Christopher Reeve Story]

• (Sep. 23) Presales Start [Saturday Night]

• (Sep. 26) THU Previews [Azrael + Bagman + Lee + Megalopolis + The Wild Robot + My Old Ass]

• (Sep. 27) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Pacific Rim]

• (Sep. 30) Opening Day [MON: Old Guy]

• (Sep. 30) Early Access [Joker: Folie à Deux: 7pm IMAX Fan First Premieres]

OCTOBER

• (Oct. 2) Presales Start [Venom: The Last Dance]

• (Oct. 2) Early Access [Piece by Piece (Dolby Cinema)]

• (Oct. 3) Thursday Previews [Joker: Folie á Deux + Monster Summer + White Bird: A Wonder Story]

• (Oct. 4) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Furious 7]

• (Oct. 10) Thursday Previews [Devara Part 1 + The Apprentice + My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next + Piece by Piece + Saturday Night + Terrifier 3]

• (Oct. 11) Opening Day [Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas Re-Release]

• (Oct. 11) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Coco]

• (Oct. 17) Thursday Previews [Goodrich + Smile 2]

• (Oct. 18) Opening Day [Hocus Pocus]

• (Oct. 24) Thursday Previews [Venom: The Last Dance]

Presale Tracking Posts:

August 27

August 29

August 31

September 3

September 11

September 14

September 16

Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.