BOT Presale Tracking (October 6). Thursday Comps: Smile 2 ($3.11M) and Venom: The Last Dance ($7.08M). Terrifier 3 still going strong.

BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking

Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)

BoxOfficeReport Previews

Quorum Updates:

• October 3

• October 3 Weekly Unaided Awareness

• October 2

• September 30

• September 27

• September 27 Weekly Unaided Awareness

• September 25

• September 23

The Apprentice

• filmlover (Tickets for it are on sale now (September 25).)

My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next

• vafrow (With showtimes now up until next Thursday, I can get a better sense of theatre allocations for that October 11th weekend at MTC4. My Hero Academia is also only getting about 4-5 theatres across the GTA (October 2).)

Piece by Piece

• AniNate (Doesn't seem like it's getting a very wide release. Of the theaters I was tracking only Valley View and Robinson Township have showtimes up, and of those only sold two tickets so far for previews (September 25).)

• vafrow (Piece by Piece gets a few more theatres, but still not much. Where it originally got 2 locations across the GTA, it has about 5. With TOne doing so badly, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets more screens when the full weekend sets go up next week. But there's likely little to no marketing happening on this one if it's this light (October 2).)

Saturday Night

• vafrow (Saturday Night seems to be getting a wide distribution. About 2/3 of locations have it. A few big locations even have a second screen (October 2).)

Terrifier 3

• CINEVERSE (Cineverse Chairman and CEO Chris McGurk added: "Terrifier 3 is poised to exceed the performance of its predecessor. The momentum behind the film, combined with incredible early ticket sales and enthusiasm from fans, suggests that we're heading for an unprecedented release that could challenge major studio horror titles this season." Early tracking indicates that ticket sales for Terrifier 3 are outpacing major studio releases (September 23).)

• BoxOfficeFangrl (The AMCs near me only have Terrifier 3 scheduled for one showing a day all weekend. I was so confused by the OW projections here until I went to Fandango and saw the Regals giving it showtimes all day, but still just one screen each (so far) (October 5).)

• Boxofficerules (Terrifier 3 voted most anticipated movie of October on Rotten Tomatoes, beating Joker 2 and Venom 3 (October 2).)

• CompoundTheGains (Nice growth for California!! | Showtimes keep slowly popping up on Fri-Sunday by me but undoubtedly more screens and showtimes would benefit the box office numbers upfront if they become available. They already said they have a 45 day theatrical window before PVOD and streaming. | The Terrifier 3 “sold out” showings have begun. Alamo Drafthouse lower manhattan NY has 2 showings sold out already (Thursdays and 1 Friday showing) (October 5). Noticeably more theaters in Utah picked up the movie (I’m sticking to these original 7) however some of these existing theaters really need another showing for Thursday otherwise we have a capacity cap that will limit Thursday growth and likely push patrons to weekend showings. | Massachusetts presales are impressive as some showings are quite full for Thursday. | Just browsed the Terrifier 3 theater counts of Massachusetts vs my last update. Appears to be acceleration in tickets being purchased. Good to see a couple new showtimes pop up. More are needed (October 4). Great imo compared to Terrifier 2 and exceeding that domestic box office total quickly (within first 2 weekends) and significantly. | A LOT more showings just popped up for these California theaters over the opening weekend (Fri-Sun) as well as more theaters increasing overall. As an example Alamo Drafthouse chain came online for presales last week and are selling very very well but none of that chain is in my numbers as they were not up for presale when I started (October 2). Just keeps creeping up on tickets sold. Two theaters are now well above 200 tickets sold for Thursday in California. One has 3 showings and the other just opened up a fifth showing for Thursday and I expect it to fill up quickly. These same theaters just broke 400+ tickets sold Thursday-Sunday and each only have 4 showings total (1 or 2 showings per night) for Friday-Sunday available to pre-buy currently (September 30). NEED more showings in Rhode Island as theaters are getting full for Thursday night!!!! | Michigan sales seem really really good to me. Michigan is by far the least tickets sold per theater or showing of the 8 states I’m following but also had slightly more growth this last time vs CA or MA that I’ve gotten around to updating recently. These presales per showing are way ahead of other movies being tracked but doesn’t have as many showings either. The hope is the sales keep coming and expand into Friday-Sunday more and more. Terrifier 2 had long legs for eight weeks. It will be interesting how the sales arc goes this time. What is clear is that it is gonna beat Terrifier 2 numbers and very likely quite significantly. | Only a couple new theaters added to Massachusetts presale tracking since last update (I’m sticking with my original 21 theaters to track) and no new showings in these 21 theaters for Thursday. Some of these showings are packed. Hopefully the chains are watching the presales and make sure they provide enough capacity to maximize ticket sales (September 27). I do think the % of tickets sold of some of the showings may drive more tickets for weekend showings soon and as we get closer to October 10 we may see less “growth” in Thursday sales because the theaters are simply full at some locations so people will chose a showing on a later date (September 26).)

• filmpalace ($1.15M THU Megalopolis Comp. Probably won’t have a clear picture of where this is headed until more showtimes are added (October 6). Low growth, but that’s to be expected when all the showings are nearly sold out. I still have a feeling there’s some fan rush behind this movie’s ticket sales, hence the Megalopolis comp. Either way, theaters should definitely add more showtimes (October 5). This is selling really well at the theaters I’m tracking. Only 3 showtimes so far, but they are all almost sold out (October 3). This is actually selling really well in the theaters I'm tracking as well. Not sure how much of a fan rush is behind the sales, but if it can keep up the pace, I think it might actually have a shot at an opening weekend around 10M (September 26).)

• Ryan C (Not sure how big this will be, but it definitely has potential for a $5M+ opening if more theaters get to book the film and the number of showtimes gets an increase. For now though, it's absolutely looking like this will be a mini-breakout sequel (September 26).)

Smile 2 Average Thursday Comp: $3.11M

• filmpalace (Around 60% of sales are for the fan event, which is on that Thursday as well. Not a bad start (September 30).)

• Ryan C (As of now though, this isn't looking too bad for the first day of pre-sales. I would expect this one to be a lot more walk-up heavy as I don't think the fanbase for the first Smile would be the one to buy tickets as soon as they go on sale (September 30).)

• TheFlatLannister ($2.91M THU Comp. Pretty good start to presales. If it stays at this level, could be around $30M OW (September 30).)

• vafrow ($3.3M THU Comp. Not much exciting here (October 6). This has been steady since it's lacklustre start. AQP under indexed here, so it's spitting out a high number, but it's still highly impressive it's staying pace. This is getting zero plf screens at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jokers underperformance benefits Smiles theatre allocation when full sets go up on Tuesday (October 5). Not a good second day. No sales and dropping against comps. Comps had longer sales periods as well, so this will fare worse once I convert to T minus (October 2). Not a bad first day (October 1). Smile 2 showtimes are up on MTC4. It's only getting single screens per location, and with a couple of exceptions, only regular showings. AQP:D1 was getting second screens at bigger locations, and that's when the market was more crowded. I thought Smile 2 was carrying stronger expectations on it but at least this chain is a little hesitant (September 30).)

Venom: The Last Dance Average Thursday Comp: $7.08M

• Charlie Jatinder ($7.13M THU Comp. Seems like no interest for Venom 3. Hardly any sales in first data I am seeing. It's been like 3 hours since sale started right? (October 1).)

• filmlover (Venom early sales are decent near me so should be good for at least $60M+. Not great, but for a second sequel that seems to lack a fresh hook, would be acceptable (October 2).

• filmpalace ($9.3M THU Comp. Decided to add the fan event tickets to the total, since they’re on Thursday anyways. Doing pretty good here (October 5). Good increase from last update (October 3). Don't have comps yet, but this seems like a solid start for something that will have most of its sales in the final days (according to those that tracked the previous Venom movies) (October 1).)

• Flip ($6.79M THU Comp. It’s settled down more than I expected considering the short window (October 4). Strong sophomore showing, I’ll switch to T-x comps tomorrow (October 2). Not great, so it will have to rely on having an insane finish to reach the $100m mark (October 1).)

• leoh (In NY and LA it’s also selling well. I have just taken a look at Orlando major theaters and it’s also selling well over there. Thursday 5pm Venom Fan Event screenings are doing particularly well, with already over 50% occupancy most of them. ATP will also be high since it’s taking in all PLFs and IMAX. | Venom Fan Event is at Thursday at 5pm. It’s listed separately on Fandango and AMC. It’s selling really well both in LA and New York considering it’s been on sale for only 6h and all of them are IMAX screenings (October 1). I was checking Fandango and theaters allocations and it’s insane, it seems it’ll take over every single premium large format nationwide (including AMC Prime). However, there’s no information when I search for Florida theaters (September 30).)

• Ryan C (This also includes the "Opening Night Fan Events". It's good that the actual traditional 2D, 3D, and PLF showtimes have outsold those Fan Event screenings, but that's mainly due to this getting quite a number of showtimes per theater. Still, unlike Deadpool and Wolverine or Joker: Folie à Deux (which did sell more than Venom on its first day of pre-sales), I'm expecting walk-up business to take this film over the finish line. If that happens, then we shouldn't be hitting the panic button just yet. I don't think this is doing $100M, but if the movie is just good enough for audiences, it should open pretty close to the range of the first Venom ($80M) (October 1).)

• Shawn Robbins (Venom is missing some of the normal theater footprint for some reason. I do not think the rollout has been as uniform as other major CBMs. Combining that with its franchise history as a late bloomer in sales, and the fact it is overlapping with Joker's target audience opening weekend + fan event showings, I would not be concerned at this stage. If anything, it looks generally in line with expectations (October 2).)

• TheFlatLannister ($5.10M THU Comp. Strong day 2. Increased nicely against all comps (October 2). Not a bad start, but also not a great start for a CBM. Doesn't feel remotely like a $100M OW to me, but we shall see. Behind Joker 2 at the same point in time (October 1).)

• vafrow ($7.1M THU Comp. A zero sales day, after a couple of big days. It's still on healthy ground and likely will be more walk up heavy (October 6). I switchd over to T minus, but realized I was miscounting days to release. That's been corrected. Switching to T minus has thrown comps for the better. But it's a shame as I lose GxK as a comp, which I think would otherwise be the best for this. I'll get it back by next week. But the increase in comps is also due to the 40% jump. I'm not sure if that's fans finding tickets up for sale after a disorganized roll out on opening day, or people disappointed with the Joker word of mouth looking to the next big release. Smile 2 had a good day as well, so I don't think we can rule out the latter (October 5). Decent growth for day 3, but still hard to get a sense on this (October 4). Quite a bit to unpack here: Very good day, much better than day one. I'm guessing the issues observed here and elsewhere with showtimes only showing up at different times deterred day one ticket buying. The formats this is one is confusing. 6 different formats, none of them just regular showings, or even just 3D showings. In fact, 11 of 19 showings are 3D. Everything is on a premium, plus the standard big movie premium is being applied. They're really shaking down eager fans to pay as much for a ticket as possible. While sales are good, 70% of it is in one VIP showing. And it doesn't appear to be a group booking either. And that location only has one showing for VIP. I don't know why they wouldn't add the late show at minimum. I'm guessing it gets added eventually. Ill probably need to rethink comps once I switch over to T minus. This is starting earlier than a lot of films, so won't be as useful in early stages (October 3). Low numbers. That said, others are seemingly less worried on performance due to franchises history of strong walk ups, but I was surprised by what I was seeing. I expected it to be closer to comps (October 2). It's not a great start here. But, it's starting out with a longer sales window than comps, so that distorts. Plus, some tech issues with the site yesterday saw showtimes go up at inconsistent times, and one location not getting showtimes yet. Still, it's a little concerning, even though other markets are showing better strength (October 2). I just set up my sheet for Venom: The Last Dance and was looking at early numbers. I have some good news. This will be an easy track for anyone doing manual counts.😟 (October 1).)

Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated October 5):

OCTOBER

• (Oct. 8) Presales Start [Gladiator 2]

• (Oct. 9) Presales Start [Wicked Part 1]

• (Oct. 10) Presales Start [Anora + Conclave]

• (Oct. 10) Thursday Previews [Average Joe + The Apprentice + My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next + Piece by Piece + Saturday Night + Terrifier 3]

• (Oct. 11) Presales Start [Rumours]

• (Oct. 11) Opening Day [Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas Re-Release]

• (Oct. 11) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Coco]

• (Oct. 16) Presales Start [Here]

• (Oct. 17) Thursday Previews [Goodrich + Smile 2]

• (Oct. 18) Opening Day [Hocus Pocus]

• (Oct. 24) Thursday Previews [Conclave + Venom: The Last Dance]

• (Oct 31) Thursday Previews [Absolution + Here + Hitpig + My Dead Friend Zoe + Weekend in Taipei]

NOVEMBER

• (Nov. 7) Thursday Previews [The Best Christmas Pageant Ever + Heretic + Overlord: The Sacred Kingdom]

• (Nov. 14) Thursday Previews [Red One]

• (Nov. 20) Early Access [WED: Wicked Part 1]

• (Nov. 21) Thursday Previews [Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin + Gladiator II + Wicked Part 1]

• (Nov. 27) Opening Day [WED: Moana 2]

DECEMBER

• (Dec. 5) Thursday Previews [Get Away + The Return + Solo Leveling -ReAwakening- + Werewolves + Y2K]

• (Dec. 12) Thursday Previews [Kraven the Hunter + The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim]

• (Dec. 19) Thursday Previews [Babygirl + Homestead + Mufasa: The Lion King + Sonic the Hedgehog 3]

• (Dec. 25) Opening Day [WED: A Complete Unknown + Better Man + The Fire Inside + Nosferatu]

Presale Tracking Posts:

September 18

September 21

September 24

September 26

September 29

October 1

October 6

Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.