BOT Presale Tracking (October 10). The Apprentice, My Hero Academia, Piece by Piece, and Saturday Night looking at quiet openings. Thursday Comps: Terrifier 3 ($2.97M), Smile 2 ($3.11M) and Venom: The Last Dance ($7.01M), Gladiator 2 ($5.26M), and Wicked ($20.63M).

BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking

Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)

BoxOfficeReport Previews

Quorum Updates:

October 9

• October 7

• October 3

• October 3 Weekly Unaided Awareness

• October 2

• September 30

• September 27

• September 27 Weekly Unaided Awareness

Average Joe

• BoxOfficeFangrl (From the director of God's Not Dead and the producers of That Duck Dynasty Biopic The Blind! It seems to be a Fathom Event. One of the AMCs here usually attracts a decent audience for that sort of thing but so far it's only sold seats for one Sunday showtime (October 8).)

The Apprentice

My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next

• vafrow (With showtimes now up until next Thursday, I can get a better sense of theatre allocations for that October 11th weekend at MTC4. My Hero Academia is also only getting about 4-5 theatres across the GTA (October 2).)

Piece by Piece

• vafrow (Piece by Piece gets a few more theatres, but still not much. Where it originally got 2 locations across the GTA, it has about 5. With TOne doing so badly, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets more screens when the full weekend sets go up next week. But there's likely little to no marketing happening on this one if it's this light (October 2).)

Saturday Night

• Ryan C (Actually a pretty good bump from where it was at last night, though some of that can be attributed to having an extra theater to track. Still, I'm not expcting a whole lot with this movie's expansion into wide release. I'll up my low end prediction to $3M but anything above $5M is looking like a pipe dream at this point (October 10). I wouldn't expect high numbers for this one. Maybe more people will wait to see it on the weekend, but I would expect anywhere between $2.5M on the low end and $5M on the high end for this film over the weekend I'd expect a Thursday preview number between $500K and $750K (because there'll be more showtimes) (October 9).)

• vafrow (Saturday Night seems to be getting a wide distribution. About 2/3 of locations have it. A few big locations even have a second screen (October 2).)

Terrifier 3 Average Thursday Comp: $2.97M

• BoxOfficeFangrl (The AMCs near me only have Terrifier 3 scheduled for one showing a day all weekend. I was so confused by the OW projections here until I went to Fandango and saw the Regals giving it showtimes all day, but still just one screen each (so far) (October 5).)

• Boxofficerules (Terrifier 3 voted most anticipated movie of October on Rotten Tomatoes, beating Joker 2 and Venom 3 (October 2).)

• CompoundTheGains (Cineverse is launching the Terrifier 3 previews with different viewing options. At places like AMC, Cinemark and others the 5-6:30 showings are a double feature Terrifier 2 and Terrifier 3. The later showings (majority of showings) are just Terrifier 3. Then regal is going a “Classics” Terrifier 2 single ticket showings early 5-6:30ish and those are all separate tickets from the Terrifier 3 tickets. No “Double feature” ticket like the others. Are these all going to be reported separately for Box office purposes? If so, the Terrifier 3 single ticket only Box office $$ for Previews may initially sound low if not added to the double feature value (October 10). Michigan is closing really well with sales! Still growing in Massachusetts! HUGE theater growth in the last 2 days and many are showing a full screen (4 to 5 showings a day Friday-Sunday). Terrifier 3 has a punchers chance at #1 now imo (October 9). From just 4pm yesterday, 4 of the closest 5 theaters to my house came online with showtimes for Terrifier 3. I had already booked tickets for Friday for about 45 minutes away (versus 25-35 on these ones). Three of the four put up Thursday showings (4 showings across the 3 theaters) and on Friday there are a new 19 showings across these four theaters. Very encouraging news!!! (October 9). Since yesterday the state of Delaware has doubled the Thursday theater count from 2 to 4 and went from 9 total showings to 16. | For California, several new theaters added as well as the 47 new showings for these tracked theaters. Alamo Drafthouse and Cinemark being the most aggressive with # of showings. A lot of these new showings just popped up too so not very many tickets sold in them yet (October 8). For California presales, it is perhaps interesting is the 2 smaller AMC Burbank’s opened up two showings each for Thursday and they are selling well (an additional 62 tickets sold already). They don’t yet have listed showings at these 2 theaters for Friday-Sunday. Makes me wonder if the big theater was out of uncommitted screens Thursday night and so AMC brought in the smaller ones to assist with demand capacity. | Not sure why Michigan lags a bit but the growth is steady. I’m guessing the initial theaters that made up my tracking group (the first 38 that opened for presales) not being as AMC/Cinemark/Regal heavy as other states plays a role. | I find Massachusetts presales particularly impressive as some showings are very very full. | These existing Utah theaters really need more showings for Thursday otherwise we have a capacity cap that will limit Thursday growth and likely push patrons to weekend showings. | Getting to where we need more showings at AMC Empire 25 in New York. | Looking at Delaware presales… Wow! What a few more showings can do for this movie. 2 added showings in Delaware and the tickets sold started increasing fast. | I did a theater count for Terrifier 3… as a rough number, I have Terrifier 3 currently just shy of about 1,300 theaters. Obviously some theaters can have multiple screens playing it. It was said by Erick Opeka-President of Cineverse-on the conference call a couple weeks ago that it was anticipated that this would open on 2,200+ screens. AMC is behind Cinemark and Regal on getting more showings up for opening weekend (October 7).)

• filmpalace ($3M THU Comp. Curious to see what the final day will look like. Still plenty of tickets left for the additional showtimes over here, so there’s room for growth (October 9). Only two more additional showtimes, leading me to believe this might run into capacity issues. Decided to switch over to horror comps (October 8). At one of the theaters I'm tracking, they only added one more Terrifier showing on Thursday, which is already starting to sell a lot of tickets. I personally don't expect this to go as high as 20M, mainly because of capacity constraints, but I'd love for it to happen (October 7). Probably won’t have a clear picture of where this is headed until more showtimes are added (October 6). Low growth, but that’s to be expected when all the showings are nearly sold out. I still have a feeling there’s some fan rush behind this movie’s ticket sales, hence the Megalopolis comp. Either way, theaters should definitely add more showtimes (October 5). This is selling really well at the theaters I’m tracking. Only 3 showtimes so far, but they are all almost sold out (October 3). This is actually selling really well in the theaters I'm tracking as well. Not sure how much of a fan rush is behind the sales, but if it can keep up the pace, I think it might actually have a shot at an opening weekend around 10M (September 26).)

• jeffthehat ($2.94M THU Comp.)

• joselowe (I'm shocked it's actually selling relatively good at my local theater too which is one of the most family friendly theaters in Miami Dade (October 7).)

• leoh (I was checking Terrifier 3 showings and I’d be surprised if it releases in more than 1.5k locations (October 7).)

• Ryan C (A little bit less of a bump than I expected, but that could also be due to the fact that I'm tracking this one a little earlier than I did last night. Should sell a few more tickets between now and the time I tracked it last night. Also, though I understand why showtimes are starting at 8:00, that will definitely limit Thursday previews from going too high. Based on what I'm seeing right now (unless it's massively over-indexing in other markets), I would definitely expect a Thursday preview number between $1M-$2M. With more showtimes being added throughout Friday-Sunday, that should keep the film in the reign of its current $10M-$15M projections. Still not seeing $20M, but that could absolutely happen if pace picks up over the weekend (October 9). Yeah, based on presales unless this has a pretty low theater count, I can't see this missing $10M on its opening. Despite showtimes starting at 8:00 PM, more showtimes are being added to keep up with demand and this bodes well for the weekend. We'll see how this does these next two days, but don't be surprised if this is the #1 movie of next weekend (October 8). Not sure how big this will be, but it definitely has potential for a $5M+ opening if more theaters get to book the film and the number of showtimes gets an increase. For now though, it's absolutely looking like this will be a mini-breakout sequel (September 26).)

• Shawn Robbins (ATP will definitely be important to watch with Terrifier 3 against most comps, other than those that also didn't have access to PLF like Longlegs or Talk to Me, et al. (October 8).)

• TalismanRing (At NYC Regal Local: 225 Thursday presales vs 192 for Joker 2 (October 9). It has 177 presales for Thursday on Monday compared to Longlegs' 62, Halloween Kills' 60, and It Part 2's 147. No Monday numbers for Freddy's but presales on Tuesday was 217 tickets sold. Crazy numbers here even if it's wildly front loaded (October 7).)

• vafrow (Still selling well (October 10). Terrifier is still doing well. It should be full theatres for the peak time shows for Friday, hopefully leading to spillover. | No Thursday previews at MTC4 which was the big cause of distress. With no Thursday previews, tickets for any showtime only became available yesterday, and the pent up demand lead to tons of questions on the chains sub reddit on when showtimes would appear. I should also state that Terrifier is playing in about one third of locations at MTC4. It also is playing in lots of smaller independent locations, many of which had this available before MTC4, so they might actually do decent business, so it's probably going to have a pretty strong theatre count. But those locations are often discount theatres, coupled with no plf, I agree with others that ATP will likely be depressed. | No comps for Friday presales as I generally don't track Friday openings directly, and this is a unique case altogether. Very strong sales that people were clearly waiting to open. For these two locations, first day is comparable to FNAF, but that wss Thursday previews versus this, and also at T-8, versus T-3 (October 9). On the Cineplex subreddit, I'm seeing a few questions pop up about showings on this, about why showtimes aren't up and what's permitted for 18a films for whether an accompanying adult is enough for a 17 year old to go. It seems like one Cineplex theatre opened showtimes locally, likely in ths last day. Only a matinee and early evening show. The early evening show is close to half sold already. But no sales for Saturday, so there's a rush factor here (October 7). It's worth pointing out that Terrifier 3 doesn't have any showtimes up yet at MTC4 in Canada. It's listed on the site,so probably gets some showtimes when full sets for this weekend go up tomorrow night. It is playing in some smaller theatres around here, but still not the number two chain. Again, probably gets those tomorrow (October 7).)

Smile 2 Average Thursday Comp: $3.11M

• filmpalace (Around 60% of sales are for the fan event, which is on that Thursday as well. Not a bad start (September 30).)

• Ryan C (As of now though, this isn't looking too bad for the first day of pre-sales. I would expect this one to be a lot more walk-up heavy as I don't think the fanbase for the first Smile would be the one to buy tickets as soon as they go on sale (September 30).)

• TheFlatLannister ($2.91M THU Comp. Pretty good start to presales. If it stays at this level, could be around $30M OW (September 30).)

• vafrow ($3.3M THU Comp. Trending down (October 9). Not much exciting here (October 6). This has been steady since it's lacklustre start. AQP under indexed here, so it's spitting out a high number, but it's still highly impressive it's staying pace. This is getting zero plf screens at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jokers underperformance benefits Smiles theatre allocation when full sets go up on Tuesday (October 5). Not a good second day. No sales and dropping against comps. Comps had longer sales periods as well, so this will fare worse once I convert to T minus (October 2). Not a bad first day (October 1). Smile 2 showtimes are up on MTC4. It's only getting single screens per location, and with a couple of exceptions, only regular showings. AQP:D1 was getting second screens at bigger locations, and that's when the market was more crowded. I thought Smile 2 was carrying stronger expectations on it but at least this chain is a little hesitant (September 30).)

Venom: The Last Dance Average Thursday Comp: $7.01M

• Charlie Jatinder ($7.08M THU MiniTC2 Comp. Seems like no interest for Venom 3. Hardly any sales in first data I am seeing. It's been like 3 hours since sale started right? (October 1).)

• filmlover (Venom early sales are decent near me so should be good for at least $60M+. Not great, but for a second sequel that seems to lack a fresh hook, would be acceptable (October 2).

• filmpalace ($9.1M THU Comp. Probably at the bottom of the U-curve right now, in terms of growth (October 7). Decided to add the fan event tickets to the total, since they’re on Thursday anyways. Doing pretty good here (October 5). Good increase from last update (October 3). Don't have comps yet, but this seems like a solid start for something that will have most of its sales in the final days (according to those that tracked the previous Venom movies) (October 1).)

• Flip ($6.66M THU Comp. Looking very standard (October 8). It’s settled down more than I expected considering the short window (October 4). Strong sophomore showing, I’ll switch to T-x comps tomorrow (October 2). Not great, so it will have to rely on having an insane finish to reach the $100m mark (October 1).)

• Grand Cine (MTC1 Comps based on Menor the Destroyer data: Sorry guys , i take T-10 but Venom 3 is at T-16 , so my estimations are up , previews are around 10% more than venom 2 at this point and friday is around the same but with a less final week than the last movie , i think more about mid 70's maybe high 70's at this point. | With inflation (around 15%) , Venom 3 is around 85% of Venom 2 for previews , and around 75% for Friday at this point. But the latter had great final week. I think about 9,5-10M for Previews ( with EA) , 17-18M True Friday and low-mid 60's at this point, unless he made big final week like the last (October 9).)

• keysersoze123 (Wicked sales look even stronger than Gladiator 2. its going to be a very good weekend for BO (October 9).)

• leoh (Venom seems to be trading up in the locations I’m tracking, it makes sense because on the last days Sony started going pretty heavy with the marketing campaign for this one, it could also be already signs of a final week surge in pre sales that previous two Venom movies also had (October 9). Venom Fan Event showings keep a nice pace and are selling really well both in LA and New York. In LA theaters, these Fan Events are now almost sold out. And in New York most showings occupancy is now around 80%. All of them are IMAX 5pm showings (October 6). In NY and LA it’s also selling well. I have just taken a look at Orlando major theaters and it’s also selling well over there. Thursday 5pm Venom Fan Event screenings are doing particularly well, with already over 50% occupancy most of them. ATP will also be high since it’s taking in all PLFs and IMAX. | Venom Fan Event is at Thursday at 5pm. It’s listed separately on Fandango and AMC. It’s selling really well both in LA and New York considering it’s been on sale for only 6h and all of them are IMAX screenings (October 1). I was checking Fandango and theaters allocations and it’s insane, it seems it’ll take over every single premium large format nationwide (including AMC Prime). However, there’s no information when I search for Florida theaters (September 30).)

• Menor the Destroyer (MTC1: It is actually doing ok relative to what we had for Venom 2, maybe a bit under as more theaters are tracked now. But that was 3 years ago at this point and not sure if it will have the same late surge that movie did (October 8).)

• Ryan C (I do have some good news. It's currently pacing better than Joker: Folie à Deux at the same point (59.1% to 33.3%) and though Joker 2 may have had stronger demand/sales for PLF screens, that won't necessarily be the case for this film. It'll still be nice to have the PLF screens, but if this is as walk-up heavy as we hope it to be, how it does in non-PLF showings is far more important. Overall, a solid update from last week when tickets went on sale. If the pace keeps steady these next few weeks, then I'd absolutely bet on this having a higher preview number than Joker: Folie à Deux (October 8). This also includes the "Opening Night Fan Events". It's good that the actual traditional 2D, 3D, and PLF showtimes have outsold those Fan Event screenings, but that's mainly due to this getting quite a number of showtimes per theater. Still, unlike Deadpool and Wolverine or Joker: Folie à Deux (which did sell more than Venom on its first day of pre-sales), I'm expecting walk-up business to take this film over the finish line. If that happens, then we shouldn't be hitting the panic button just yet. I don't think this is doing $100M, but if the movie is just good enough for audiences, it should open pretty close to the range of the first Venom ($80M) (October 1).)

• Shawn Robbins (Venom is missing some of the normal theater footprint for some reason. I do not think the rollout has been as uniform as other major CBMs. Combining that with its franchise history as a late bloomer in sales, and the fact it is overlapping with Joker's target audience opening weekend + fan event showings, I would not be concerned at this stage. If anything, it looks generally in line with expectations (October 2).)

• TheFlatLannister ($5.10M THU Comp. Strong day 2. Increased nicely against all comps (October 2). Not a bad start, but also not a great start for a CBM. Doesn't feel remotely like a $100M OW to me, but we shall see. Behind Joker 2 at the same point in time (October 1).)

• vafrow ($7.1M THU Comp. Trending up (October 9). A zero sales day, after a couple of big days. It's still on healthy ground and likely will be more walk up heavy (October 6). I switchd over to T minus, but realized I was miscounting days to release. That's been corrected. Switching to T minus has thrown comps for the better. But it's a shame as I lose GxK as a comp, which I think would otherwise be the best for this. I'll get it back by next week. But the increase in comps is also due to the 40% jump. I'm not sure if that's fans finding tickets up for sale after a disorganized roll out on opening day, or people disappointed with the Joker word of mouth looking to the next big release. Smile 2 had a good day as well, so I don't think we can rule out the latter (October 5). Decent growth for day 3, but still hard to get a sense on this (October 4). Quite a bit to unpack here: Very good day, much better than day one. I'm guessing the issues observed here and elsewhere with showtimes only showing up at different times deterred day one ticket buying. The formats this is one is confusing. 6 different formats, none of them just regular showings, or even just 3D showings. In fact, 11 of 19 showings are 3D. Everything is on a premium, plus the standard big movie premium is being applied. They're really shaking down eager fans to pay as much for a ticket as possible. While sales are good, 70% of it is in one VIP showing. And it doesn't appear to be a group booking either. And that location only has one showing for VIP. I don't know why they wouldn't add the late show at minimum. I'm guessing it gets added eventually. I'll probably need to rethink comps once I switch over to T minus. This is starting earlier than a lot of films, so won't be as useful in early stages (October 3). Low numbers. That said, others are seemingly less worried on performance due to franchises history of strong walk ups, but I was surprised by what I was seeing. I expected it to be closer to comps (October 2). It's not a great start here. But, it's starting out with a longer sales window than comps, so that distorts. Plus, some tech issues with the site yesterday saw showtimes go up at inconsistent times, and one location not getting showtimes yet. Still, it's a little concerning, even though other markets are showing better strength (October 2). I just set up my sheet for Venom: The Last Dance and was looking at early numbers. I have some good news. This will be an easy track for anyone doing manual counts.😟 (October 1).)

Gladiator 2 Average Thursday Comp: $5.26M

• AMC Theaters Enjoyer (PLFs seem to vary if my theaters are to go by: some get IMAX, some don’t. Few get Dolby and even then only one or two showings in that format. it seems to be sharing the latter with Wicked in some theaters (October 8).)

• filmlover (Gladiator II showtimes are starting to appear as well (starts at 2:00 that Thursday, no early access it seems) so it seems like everyone is already banking on it and Wicked (GladiWicked?) being the next Barbenheimer sensation if theaters are already locking in their screens/showtimes for that busy weekend (October 6).)

• filmpalace (Good first day. Will check up on this every now and then until closer to release, where I’ll switch over to daily updates (October 8).)

• Flip ($5.51M THU comp. Decent day. | Before today I would’ve guessed ~55m OW for Wicked, now I think something closer to 75m. Still think Gladiator 2 will beat it but I’m much less confident now (October 9). A little under what I was expecting, but it’s so far out it isn’t too disheartening (October 8).)

• Hiccup23 (Presales at the Alamo Drafthouse Chicago theater: 47 Thursday and 109 Weekend versus 115 Thursday and 299 Weekend for Wicked (October 9).)

• JonathanMB (I was just checking my local Cinemarks and AMCs, and yeah Wicked and Gladiator already have their first round of showtimes up; it looks like Gladiator in IMAX is the only constant, with at least one showtime on every IMAX screen in my area, and it has the majority of evening IMAX shows as well, while Wicked only has one or two IMAX shows at best. Dolby is all over the place; some places have Wicked taking most of the shows, others are sharing, and some are completely unclaimed still – probably waiting to see how they each do in pre-sales before committing to one? (October 7).)

• keysersoze123 (Just quick look at Gladiator sales for evening Imax looks really good. Its not getting all PLF considering Wicked is also releasing previous week? But Gladiator has started well considering its more than 6 weeks to go for the release (October 8).)

• Ryan C (This also includes the Thursday "Fan Event" showings. Looking at this, it's definitely carried by IMAX, but since Wicked is coming out on the same weekend, it's not gonna get the full PLF footprint. Not sure how much this'll affect its run (as both movies are going after completely different demographics), but it's sure to at least take some business away from it. Also, about 60% of seats sold right now (746 Seats) are for the "Fan Event" showings and though this is only the first day of pre-sales, it's not exactly an encouraging sign. If this one wants to avoid the same fate as Furiosa, it's gotta play more than in just the PLF screens (even Furiosa got the full footprint for two weeks) and it has to get casual audiences in there. Definitely possible, but I'm skeptical right now (October 8).)

• TalismanRing (For Thursday, Gladiator 2 has 22 presales versus 23 for Wicked (October 9).)

• vafrow ($5.0M THU Comp. Not much of a day 2 (October 10). Gladiator didn't seem like it was doing anything too noteworthy on its second day, but again, limited showings and 40+ lead time. | Comps should be taken with a huge grain of salt. As indicated yesterday, this is falling between the heavy front loaded properties and second tier. Throw in the long sales time and it gets wonkier. The plf allocation remains interesting. Only IMAX. Nothing else. Not even VIP theatres, when there's plenty of those to go around in my region. Overall though, strong sales day one a month and a half out remains impressive (October 9). Looking at around 8 hours in, its doing fairly well, but will be hard to comp. It's sold about 12 tickets in my radius. It's not performing like a big fan rush property, like a comic book film or Dune. Deadpool and Dune both were selling at a much bigger scale. Even Joker was at 35 tickets sold by this point. But it's well ahead of secondary properties that I hoped to use as comps like KOTPOTA that only sold two tickets on day one. Even as an in between property, I would have predicted it would be more like the secondary types, so overall, I'd say irs doing well, especially this many days out. But, people tracking wider areas will be a better judge, especially this early (October 8). Showings are starting to appear in the Atlantic area on MTC4. It's likely working on a local 9:00 am time for release. It's getting regular showings for the majority of theatres, plus IMAX at one location (October 7).)

Wicked Part 1 Average Thursday Comp: $20.63M

• FANDANGO (Already hitting Fandango milestones: Second Best First-Day Ticket Pre-Seller of 2024. Best PG Rated First-Day Ticket Pre-Seller of 2024. No. 3 Best PG Rated First-Day Ticket Pre-Seller of All Time behind only Frozen II and The Lion King (2019)(October 10).)

• Charlie Jatinder ($22.13M THU MiniTC2 Comp. 15x Gladiator 2 (October 10).)

• filmlover (Just checked Wicked sales near me and they're pretty big so far. Fan rush and all due to the musical, but still. Confident it's at least opening on par with 2013's Oz the Great & Powerful ($79M) at this point. Hopefully Gladiator II can pull a $40M+ opening too for a very strong weekend leading into Moana 2's arrival over the Thanksgiving frame (October 9).)

• filmpalace (Sold twice as much as Gladiator’s first day, despite not having showtimes up at the second theater I track. Just an amazing first day (October 10).)

• Flip ($19.12M THU Comp. Joker ($14.14M) is a better comp: that overindexed a fair amount just as I expect Wicked too (considering I track NYC where the play was put on + NJ which is close) (October 9). Wicked’s 1st day will be the 2nd highest I’ve tracked, could possibly reach 2/3 of Deadpool 3’s First day. | Before today I would’ve guessed ~55m OW for Wicked, now I think something closer to 75m (October 9).)

• Hiccup23 (Presales at the Alamo Drafthouse Chicago theater: Yall Wicked is selling like nothing I have seen at this theater (October 10). 115 Thursday and 299 Weekend for Wicked versus 47 Thursday and 109 Weekend for Gladiator II(October 9).)

• JonathanMB (I was just checking my local Cinemarks and AMCs, and yeah Wicked and Gladiator already have their first round of showtimes up; it looks like Gladiator in IMAX is the only constant, with at least one showtime on every IMAX screen in my area, and it has the majority of evening IMAX shows as well, while Wicked only has one or two IMAX shows at best. Dolby is all over the place; some places have Wicked taking most of the shows, others are sharing, and some are completely unclaimed still – probably waiting to see how they each do in pre-sales before committing to one? (October 7).)

• joselowe (Damn wicked actually selling great at my local theater too here in Miami-Dade. Shocked, I've never seen this type of first sales for first day here. Early access and first week tickets are selling pretty damn good in Aventura (October 9).)

• leoh (Wicked should get a bigger opening weekend than BJBJ (111 million). Yet it’ll have almost no prime time IMAX showings (at least in NY and LA the only prime time IMAX showing it has is at AMC Universal theater, for obvious reasons lol) (October 10). At the pace that it’s selling in some locations I’d not be surprised if this 50M is made on its total opening day. Wicked in few minutes sold out the three Dolby Cinema showings it has for Thursday in Lincoln square. It’s the second biggest Dolby Cinema nationwide (if I’m not mistaken). Of course I’d expect it to sell out there, but not so fast. The only few remaining seats are in the 2pm showing. | Wicked pre sales in NY and LA, in the theatres where I usually track, are having a demand comparable to ‘Deadpool and Wolverine’ first few hours. It’s shockingly high demand. It’s really really impressive. It’s too early to be sure of anything, but this is the one that can challenge Inside Out 2 place as this year second biggest domestic box office opening weekend. However, something to keep in mind is that it’ll also have lower ATP if compared to IO2 or DW, since both had all PLFs and IMAX screens, while Wicked will split them with Gladiator (October 9).)

• Ryan C (Wicked has been doing fantastically in PLF screens (even in the few IMAX screens it has) it's also been doing really well in non-PLF showtimes. Unlike Dune 2, there's not a "you need to see this on the biggest screen possible" incentive which is beneficial for people who just want to see the film in a regular format. Also, Wicked has the added bonus of 3D screenings and compared to IMAX, more theaters (ones that don't have an IMAX or Dolby) are able to play the film on those screens (October 10). For the first day of pre-sales, this is easily the highest I've ever seen since Deadpool and Wolverine. Like that film, it's excelling in PLF screens (expect more showtimes to be added to those Early Access Screenings to keep up with demand), but also getting a substantial turnout from non-PLF showtimes. That signals that even with Gladiator II getting most of the IMAX screens that weekend, it won't eat into this movie's gross that much. However, it needs to be emphasized that most of these theaters that I tracked are in the New York City area (including Lincoln Square). The Broadway Musical of Wicked is a literal phenomenon over there as is plenty of the other big metropolitan areas (Los Angeles, San Francisco, etc.). Due to that, take these numbers with a big grain of salt. Yes, these are extremely encouraging signs that at least the fans (which there's a ton of) will show up, but the key is if non-fans or specifically general audiences will show up. If they do (I'm inclined to think they will) and like what they see, then we could be looking at a massive global hit this November and possibly one of the biggest non-Disney movies of 2024. For now, it's still off to an amazing start. No matter what though, this sure as hell ain't opening lower than Universal's last two attempts at a Broadway musical adaptation (Cats and Dear Evan Hansen). | I'll just say right now that I am very impressed by how it's selling in the theaters near me. Granted, I'm tracking theaters that are either near or in the NYC area (I knew Wicked would sell best in the big cities), but this is the best first day in terms of pre-sales that I've seen for a movie since Deadpool and Wolverine. Wednesday EA screenings are doing fantastic business right now (plenty of near sell-outs) and Thursday is looking pretty good as well. Even some of the non-PLF showtimes have a good amount of seats sold, showing signs that audiences will opt to see this movie in whatever format and won't care if it's in IMAX or not. I'm not saying if this will open to $100M+, but if the film gets good reviews and it's able to appeal beyond the fanbase of the musical, this is no doubt going to be a big hit (October 9).)

• TalismanRing (For Thursday, Gladiator 2 has 22 presales versus 23 for Wicked (October 9).)

• vafrow (Interesting that it's number two for pre-sales for the year. I only have my particular lens, but I'm guessing it's not the case here, as I'm pretty sure Dune 2 was stronger. It was by a large margin in my market, but it overindexed in Canada by a lot (October 10). EA and THU average are not relevant at this stage. So, comps aren't helping much. It's in between tiers, and my market really is feast or famine. We'll know more in time, but I'm reluctant to get too predict too much. One thing I keep going back to is the weird screen allocations. For initial pre-sales, VIP theatres tend to be big sellers. They're limited capacity, so seats go quickly. And they're ideal for date night or girls night out type audiences. It was the biggest seller for Deadpool and Wolceri for example. But Wicked doesn't have any showings for this format chain wide. Neither does Gladiator. I'm sure if these showings were available, it would be capturing a lot of sales. And they sell for more than IMAX tickets. You also don't have late evening shows in some theatres. This whole thing feels like a weird experiment by the chain and I can't tell why (October 10). Wicked is really looking strong. The showtime allocation on Wicked is bizarre. Dolby screens and lots of 3D for the prime shows and only 11 showtimes across my five screens. Similar to Gladiator, the chain seems to be keeping their options open. Speaking of ths chain, I saw word of a Wicked prop giveaway for anyone buying Wicked tickets opening weekend. Not sure how much incentive that provides, and anyone buying tickets between now and the day before previews is eligible, so it doesn't add too much incentive to get tickets early. | Early sales look good so far. Total sales of 16 tickets, which doesn't sound like much, but all films I identified as possible comps were slow starters (Inside Out 2, Beetlejuice, Twisters). It also doesn't capture the 30 tickets sold for Wednesday EA shows. This is suburban Toronto. It's not Midwest USA, but it's also not New York. I thought Gladiator had a good start yesterday, and with the EA shows considered, this is doing better. I'm feeling pretty optimistic, even though I won't have great comps (October 9).)

Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated October 5):

OCTOBER

• (Oct. 10) Presales Start [Anora + Conclave]

• (Oct. 10) Thursday Previews [Average Joe + The Apprentice + My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next + Piece by Piece + Saturday Night + Terrifier 3]

• (Oct. 11) Presales Start [Rumours]

• (Oct. 11) Opening Day [Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas Re-Release]

• (Oct. 11) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Coco]

• (Oct. 16) Presales Start [Here]

• (Oct. 17) Thursday Previews [Goodrich + Smile 2]

• (Oct. 18) Opening Day [Hocus Pocus]

• (Oct. 24) Thursday Previews [Conclave + Venom: The Last Dance]

• (Oct 31) Thursday Previews [Absolution + Here + Hitpig + My Dead Friend Zoe + Weekend in Taipei]

NOVEMBER

• (Nov. 7) Presales Start [Interstellar Re-release]

• (Nov. 7) Thursday Previews [The Best Christmas Pageant Ever + Heretic + Overlord: The Sacred Kingdom]

• (Nov. 14) Thursday Previews [Red One]

• (Nov. 20) Early Access [WED: Wicked Part 1]

• (Nov. 21) Thursday Previews [Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin + Gladiator II + Wicked Part 1]

• (Nov. 27) Opening Day [WED: Moana 2]

DECEMBER

• (Dec. 5) Thursday Previews [Get Away + The Return + Solo Leveling -ReAwakening- + Werewolves + Y2K]

• (Dec. 12) Thursday Previews [Kraven the Hunter + The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim]

• (Dec. 19) Thursday Previews [Babygirl + Homestead + Mufasa: The Lion King + Sonic the Hedgehog 3]

• (Dec. 25) Opening Day [WED: A Complete Unknown + Better Man + The Fire Inside + Nosferatu]

Presale Tracking Posts:

September 18

September 21

September 24

September 26

September 29

October 1

October 3

October 6

October 8

Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.