Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.

We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of this film. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.

So let's meet the one film for the week.

Red One

The film is directed by Jake Kasdan (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Walk Hard and Bad Teacher) and written by Chris Morgan (Fast & Furious), from an original story by Hiram Garcia. The film stars Dwayne Johnson, Chris Evans, Lucy Liu, Kiernan Shipka, Bonnie Hunt, Nick Kroll, Kristofer Hivju, Wesley Kimmel, and J. K. Simmons. In the film, Callum Drift, the head of North Pole security, must team up with Jack O'Malley, a bounty hunter, to find and rescue Santa Claus after he gets kidnapped.

Now that you've met this week's new releases. Let's look at some pros and cons.

PROS

• The film is carrying a cast of big names in the likes of Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans. And Lucy Liu is also relatively popular as well. If you want a blockbuster, you need recognizable faces.

• This is the only film released in the Christmas season that actually revolves around the holiday. In this case, saving Santa Claus.

• It can be a main attraction for families, which should give it legs for the season.

• Kasdan and Johnson have already hit it out of the park with the Jumanji films, and they clearly want to make this one work as well.

CONS

• So there are big names, but even they can have their fair amount of failures. Evans has struggled outside the MCU and the movies he picked don't help as well; The Gray Man, Ghosted and Pain Hustlers went to streaming but they were not well received and make it clear he's not selective with his projects. Johnson is also coming off the failure of Black Adam, a passion project that failed to pan out to anything. While it still made $393 million worldwide, those numbers would be a colossal failure for this film for one key reason…

• The budget for the film is $250 million, making it one of the most expensive films ever made. Now you may be wondering "why did it cost that much?" Well, TheWrap has it covered for you, but to summarize: it started as a Prime Video original before being moved to theaters, but there is another problem; Johnson acted unprofessional on set by arriving over 7-8 hours late and missing several days of shooting, costing over $50 million to accomodate it. The public probably doesn't know about it, but it makes the break-even point way too high. Basically it has to make $600 million worldwide just to finally recoup the investment, which is a high bar for a non-IP film.

• The trailers are… just not it. They obviously want to highlight the comedy and buddy aspects of the film, but it looks quite underwhelming to say the least. Even if it's the only Christmas movie of the season, perhaps audiences would prefer to watch other things in theaters. It could get lost in the shuffle while competing with Gladiator II, Wicked and Moana.

And here's the past results.

Next week, we're predicting Wicked and Gladiator II.

Before you comment, read these two rules:

1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction.

2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.

So what are your predictions for this film?