[BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/page/895/#comments)
[**USA Showtimes As of May 31**](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4683407)
[Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zRjKpNOjPCBIgUULoyXyj5sBGMuU9owswn7bMfz1WSE/edit#gid=0)
[BoxOfficeReport Previews](http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html)
**Quorum Updates:**
– [July 1 Weekly Unaided Awareness](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4696263)
– [July 1](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4696262)
– [June 28](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4694827)
– [June 26](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4694224)
– [June 24 Weekly Unaided Awareness](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4693411)
– [June 24](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4693243)
– [June 20](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4691392)
– [June 19](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4690991)
– [June 17](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4690268)
– [June 15 Weekly Unaided Awareness](https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-gladiator-2-debuts-thanks-to-russell-crowe/)
**DOMESTIC PRESALES**
– Unfitclock (So regal is doing a summer movie express where they’re putting older movies in theaters for a $1 at 11am throughout the summer every week I took a look just out of curiosity and every single movies throughout the summer is completely full **(June 17)**.)
– [M37](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32392-inside-out-2-weekend-thread-155m-dom-140m-os-summer-is-back-disney-saves-the-day-%F0%9F%98%82%F0%9F%98%A2%F0%9F%98%A1%F0%9F%A4%A2%F0%9F%98%B1%F0%9F%98%B0%F0%9F%98%92%F0%9F%A5%B1%F0%9F%98%B3/?do=findComment&comment=4688756) (Films that appeal to an older, whiter, and generally more aware (cinephile) audience tend to have weaker walk-ups (Elvis, Flower moon, etc). However, that can be mitigated if said film also attracts a more GA crowd, particularly in middle and lower tier markets, where presales are a much smaller share of the final number, like TGM and Indy 5 both did (to an extent, not on the level of the other films mentioned [GxK, Equalizer, Creed, Apes, Minions, Kung Fu Panda, Inside Out]). I would expect Twisters to behave more like the TGM/Indy 5 type films, and probably not skew quite as old, so it should be decent if unspectacular on walk-ups. And we’re also still 6 weeks away, and the fandom is soft, not one that needs to buy so far in advance (as contrasted to Deapool), so it should do fine. Currently thinking it ends up in $50M+ range for OW, in range of Apes (and Bad Boys 4), solid but not nothing special. Or it could go more the way of Furiosa, where it doesn’t connect with the GA, and that weaker fandom means the floor is much lower **(June 14)**.)
**Despicable Me 4 Average Wednesday Comp/Prediction *using average of abracadabra1998’s comps*: $26.43M/$28.5M**
– abracadabra1998 ($21.74M Preview Films and $16.90M Opening Day Films comp (both for Wednesday). My comps are pretty useless here, but I do want to point out that this is by far the strongest “ratio” I have tracked for Twin cities metro area theaters to outstate Minnesota (you can see that in the IF + Garfield comps versus the KFP4 and Migration ones). Don’t really feel comfortable throwing out a prediction here, this track is more for future comps **(July 2)**. Anyways, incredibly jumps and final week paces **(July 1)**. Another great day! **(June 30)**. Wowza! Incredible update. Something to keep an eye on is that tomorrow, T-3, will be on Sunday, as opposed to the other animated releases which are all Thursday releases, so I expect comps will likely go down, and then pick back up again strong on Monday **(June 29)**. Ramping up for sure **(June 26)**. Really good update, hope it continues trending upward **(June 22)**. Not bad at this point of its run, all about the final week and walk-ups though obviously **(June 19)**.)
– BOfficeStats (On Fandango, Xfinity Rewards is offering Xfinity Rewards Members: Despicable Me 4, Buy One, Get One Free (Up to $15 Off). Offer ends July 7 and it must be redeemed by July 14 **(June 22)**.)
– Caption Action 3 (California open captions: All theaters AMC except for Alamo Drafthouse Los Angeles, and Tristone Jurupa Valley. Ticket to screentime ratio of less than 2 **(July 1)**. Early open caption data for “Despicable Me 4.” So far, looks meh **(June 30)**.)
– Charlie Jatinder ($27.67M WED comp at MiniTC2. I think Sat will be flat/drop a bit. So from 23 FRI should be 105 **(July 1)**.)
– crazymoviekid ($27.48M WED Comp. Most comps went up. Believe in the walk-ups. $25M+ **(July 2)**. All comps went up. Feeling a lot more confident. Closer to $25M **(July 1)**. Either going to $10M based on comps or $20M. Feeling more confident about the latter **(June 30)**.)
– Flip ($22.06M WED comp. It barely grew against Inside Out 2 Friday, when it should’ve done a fair amount better. Walkups should be better tomorrow given that more schools are out. Prediction: 27-28m **(July 2)**. Better day **(July 1)**. Sold more than Inside Out 2 Thurs in the same timespan, but slipped against Friday. Would not be surprised with 5-day under 100m unless something changes **(June 30)**. Sold half of Inside Out 2 in the same timespan. Starting tomorrow I’ll have the IO2 Friday comp (it should start at ~26m), so that’s much more encouraging **(June 26)**. Still waiting for the final week to jump, but I would not be surprised if the 5 day just barely passes 100m **(June 24)**.)
– katnisscinnaplex ($22.13M WED Comp. Based on T-1 growth comps, I’m expecting around a 75% growth today. Using that hypothetical, I’d predict around a 26.5m OD **(July 2)**.)
– keysersoze123 (It went well above my expectations. Now I have to bump my OD prediction to 30m ish range **(July 2)**. DM4 OD sales just under 121K. Not sure it has the pace to get to 150K. it might just fall short. We have to see how the walkups go. I am expecting 350-375K. Since its full day and I expect this movie to under index compared to most movies that should be sufficient for mid 20s OD. Could hit even with 27-28m. 2nd PS is at 48178/1218228 687839.70 couple of hours ago. Its less than half and sold under 14K tickets past day. So pace is also less than half. I expect the day to be driven by walkups but 2nd day will drop quite a bit from OD BO. Could even be bigger than what I guess yesterday. Especially if OD over perform. So this is likely to be more front loaded in relation to OD than what Mario or IO2 was **(July 2)**. My predicted saturday increase is bit too high. That said yesterday when I checked saturday PS was not that far behind and it has additional day of PS. So could go up a bit. Its also possible all these numbers go up a bit if momentum is there. We will know based on Wednesday walkups. | It did hit the benchmark I expected earlier today(95k). Very good day as expected. | Let us give it a shot at a 5-day prediction: Wednesday – 25m. Thu – 17m. Fri – 23m. Sat – 28m. Sunday – 22m. 115m over 5 days. But looking beyond OD, its not that much about presales as they are well below OD and we have to see if WOM would be good enough to pull the GA over the 5 day weekend **(July 1)**. Not double but not a bad day at all. I am bumping up my OD expectations to at least mid 20s. Mario sold over 24K but grew less. Also on Monday Mario grew only ~ 39K. I expect the gap to go down and walkups could even match or do a bit better. If we have to compare with IO2, equivalent day would be Tuesday when it sold over 29K. Wed growth was around 39K(taken few hours earlier. I think actual number is 44K). But it was a full thursday preview release and so early demand was divided between both the movies. | I want to wait and see how Sunday pace is for OD to judge the 5-day. Its not pulling a Mario for sure in terms of OD to OW multi **(June 30)**. I wanted to see how rest of the week is looking. Looks meh to me **(June 30)**. It does have few midnight shows but its not going make a big difference. On Wednesday it does jump a bit. let us see how next 2 days goes. I may have been too low **(June 28)**. | DM4 is almost all opening day (it has 75 midnight shows where I am tracking and its not a midnight movie for sure). That is why I am comping with Mario which had similar release. | I am comping with Mario and how crazy final few days were for it. Mario did 35m OD. DM4 is currently at 1/3 the today with pace at slightly above half. I was just extrapolating if it maintains that through out. But final day walkups could be like 80% of mario. Then it can get around 23-25m OD. | Its definitely on the move at this point. Its hard to extrapolate Wednesday release with Friday numbers as final ramp up is different. 1 Wednesday comp is Mario. That also had a strong finish. I am thinking mid to high teens OD **(June 28)**. Its definitely amping up at the right time. It should be at 75-80% range of Inside Out Friday. of course IO2 had crazy finish and so one has to monitor how DM4 does with a wednesday release that should function better than a normal friday I think. Definitely looking at a good OD at this point. It’s around 1/3 of Mario at this point before release **(June 26)**. It has accelerated as well. Let us see how things go. May be once it hits T-7, we could comp it with IO2 Friday? **(June 24)**. I dont think rest of the week matters. It will follow atypical drop/increase for that week anyway. Big question is how it accelerates next week. I am not sure its going to get even a “review boost” as its already out in few OS markets. Ideally that should build the hype. I cannot see any so far **(June 23)**. Wednesday pace seem to be going up. Friday is moribund **(June 22)**. There would not good comps for this movie except Mario and DM4 wont be anywhere near Mario **(June 19)**.)
– Porthos (There is an extra “event” (Wed July 3rd) called the “Super Ticket”. At a glance, looks to be super limited (only one showing in the entire Greater Sacramento market), still could siphon away tickets from other showings in the locales that do have them. No idea what sort of chain limitations might be at play here. Secondly, (July 6th) “Despicable Me MEGA SAT Family Event”. Looks to be a Marcus Exclusive, ala Inside Out 2 Funko event. Chance of siphoning off some amount of sales from earlier days, so might be kept in the back of the mind of anyone who is comping any regions that have Marcus/Movie Tavern Theaters.**(June 4)**.)
– Relevation ($28.75M WED Comp. Despicable Me 4 went, for lack of a better term, absolutely bananas at my market. Far and away the biggest movie I’ve ever tracked, selling 42% more tickets than every other kids movie I’ve tracked combined. Comps I have are pointing to an OD well in excess of $28M+, and I think it could be going even higher. $30M+ OD and a 5-day opening frame of $135-145M **(July 2)**.)
– Rorschach ($28.06M WED Comp.)
– vafrow ($32.4M Wednesday comp. This was the big growth day I was waiting for. It’s made up for what it’s slipped in recent days against comps **(July 2)**. It continues to slip. This has had the opposite of the sales path that I expected. It’s still pacing to do well, but I associate this franchise with slower starts with acceleration at the end. Growth rates have been dropping though **(July 1)**. It slipped a bit off pace with comps, but that might be because dates aren’t lining up. For other films being comped, the T-4 is usually the Monday morning update, which tends to be stronger. Another note is that with tomorrow being a major holiday, it might throw off numbers **(June 30)**. It had a good day, outpacing the national trend. With schools now closed, I anticipate things will start picking up pace as parents look for ways to occupy the kids **(June 29)**. Doing well. What’s interesting though is how much it’s falling off the national pace. My sample was originally 8.2% of national volumes at T-11. It’s now at 6.8%. But it’s still overperforming the average location by about double. So it’s likely that there’s just more up front activity in my location **(June 28)**. Still staying steady **(June 27)**. Full showtimes have been added, making this update a bit of a mess. They’re really going hard on this one. It’s surprising, as Inside Out will still be going strong. Thats a lot of screens for animated films, but it’s also full school closures from this Friday **(June 26)**. It’s the closest thing it’s had to a bad day. I’m not sure the cause, but not too worried about falling off pace for one day when it’s been si consistent **(June 25)**. Another reasonable day **(June 24)**. It keeps chugging along **(June 23)**. It’s staying above 10% a day. Remarkable consistency **(June 22)**. Steady and consistent **(June 21)**. Continues to go up. It’s staying above 10% daily growth all week, which is pretty amazing this far out. I have to think it’s got room to accelerate as well once we’re in the final stretch of school. Ticket bookings are primarily in small groups, ranging from 5-10. People booking this far out are likely doing outings with friends and family **(June 20)**.)
**Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot Average Wednesday Comp/Prediction: $1.04M/$1.00M**
– Relevation ($1.04M WED Comp. Abject terror when I realized that Sound of Hope was doing WED previews, as my midnight preview track went well after hours. Movie appears to have done fine, probably eyeing like $1M WED (if Angel Studios even reports it lol) and a 5-day of what, $15M? **(July 2)**.)
**MaXXXine EA/FRI Comp: $0.58M/$3.38M**
– abracadabra1998 ($0.66M EA and $3.91M FRI Comp. As always, I am comparing Opening Day to previews, which is less than ideal; there are a lot more showtimes, and a better walk-up ratio since it’s a Friday. So I expect Friday to be quite a bit better than that average shows **(July 2)**. This is honestly doing pretty good! NO PLFs for this so the ATP should bring the average down a little bit, maybe something like $500-600k **(July 2)**.)
– Charlie Jatinder (Its not on sale in MiniTC2 **(June 25)**.)
– crazymoviekid ($6.3M FRI Comp. WIDE variety, but I think $3M-$4M for now **(July 2)**.)
– el sid (Counted yesterday for Friday, 580 sold tickets. Solid business in every region. Comps (always counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): X had 50 tickets, Pearl had 98, The Invitation had 87, Malignant had 100, Scream VI had 717, Halloween Kills had 750, Halloween Ends had 822, and Evil Dead Rise had 455. No average number today because that would create too high expectations. You can see that Pearl had twice as many sold tickets but it still had a worse OW than X. So if MaXXXine would have ~ 200 sold tickets that wouldn’t be too impressive. But nearly 600 tickets IMO are. Before I exaggerate let’s see how big the jump till tomorrow is (but from my personal feelings it will look good) **(July 2)**. Presales look also in my theaters very good. It had today counted for Friday 580 tickets. E.g. The Invitation had on Monday for Friday 87 tickets. And The Strangers finally (=on Thursday for Thursday) had 553. For the EA shows on Wednesday it had today 512 **(July 1)**. Today, again counted for Friday, July 5, 301 sold tickets (still with showtimes in 6 theaters). Up quite nice 22% since Friday. My comps stay the same as two days ago **(June 23)**. Counted yesterday for Friday, July 5, had already 247 sold tickets (with shows in 6 theaters, no shows in the small AMC in Texas). 14 days left. Solid presales everywhere and very good ones in the AMCs Universal Cinema and Metreon in California. Rough comps (all 4 movies counted also for Friday): X (4.3M OW) had 50 sold tickets on Monday of the release week = 10 days left for MaXXXine to increase the margin. Pearl (4.3M OW) had 50 sold tickets with 8 days left and 98 sold tickets on Monday of the release week = 6 respectively 10 days left to increase the margin. Infinity Pool (2.5M OW) had on Monday of the release week 68 sold tickets. And Halloween Ends (40.05M OW) had with 10 days left 424 sold tickets. The Watchers (7M OW) had with 8 days left and counted for Thursday 37 sold tickets. And The Strangers: Chapter One (11.8M OW) had on Monday of the release week 215 sold tickets for Thursday. You see, it’s looking good in my theaters **(June 22)**. The numbers were surprisingly nice. (OTOH I wasn’t that surprised because I recently watched X – strange but good) **(June 21)**.)
– filmlover (Actually selling well (both for the early Wednesday preview and for Friday) near me too. The combined totals of X and Pearl is $21M, so surpassing that mark would confirm those movies developed a considerable following on streaming (which is how I saw those movies, will be seeing this one in theaters) **(June 30)**.)
– Flip ($1.44M FRI Comp. A fair batch of shows just got added so there is a lot of room to grow if the demand is there **(July 2)**. I was checking shows near me, and I think 10m+ is more likely than not, in just one theater it’s sold as much as Twisters’ first day **(June 19)**.)
– katnisscinnaplex (This is a weird one. Alamo EA on 6/26. A few MTC1 and MTC3 shows on 7/1. ~1,400 early shows on 7/3 across all chains. Only seeing five theaters with previews on the 4th. Back to around 1,400 theaters on Friday (so far) **(June 26)**.)
– keysersoze123 (Another good day for this movie. Probably looking at different early shows across banners it should do 500K in early shows(I am told Canada have thursday shows but not sure how well it will do there) and I am thinking 4m+ friday **(July 2)**. I think its doing really well at this point. Unless the walkups are absolute terrible, it should hit double digits. May be even low teens? **(July 1)**. Early shows(I see multiple days of them depending on the TC) are used to build WOM. | I think its at least doing better than Horizon. With a holiday OW, I think double digit OW should happen **(June 30)**. Its doing ok **(June 28)**. It’s not a typical release. I see early shows across multiple days depending on the theater chain. No previews and its releasing next friday. Early numbers are at least way stronger than what we are seeing for say Horizon this week. Not sure what to expect **(June 25)**.)
– Rorschach ($1.24M FRI Comp. Showtimes weren’t available here until yesterday so that accounts for the current low total. Checked last night and there were zero tickets sold, hence why I didn’t bother reporting it. Hoping tomorrow will provide more accurate numbers **(July 2)**.)
– VanillaSkies (Its release is just all over the place. Some Monday shows some places, Wednesday EA some places, Thursday previews in Canada (and apparently a few other chains) and then full open Friday **(July 2)**. Interestingly, at MTC4, it’s not having any Wednesday previews, but is having regular Thursday night showtimes. I guess because no one is celebrating July 4th in Canada **(June 30)**.)
**Fly Me to the Moon**
– filmlover (Fly Me to the Moon was the surprise screening last night for those tracking those things **(July 2)**. It has Early Access shows next Friday (7/5). It’s actually selling pretty well so far near me **(June 28)**.)
**Longlegs**
– Flip (4 showtimes/132 tickets sold (+33). Really strong day. Should pass Watchers (T-0) tomorrow, but if it will go higher it’s dependent on more showtimes being added **(July 2)**. 4 showtimes/99 tickets sold (+21). More shows still need to be added. Very close to Watchers T-1 **(July 1)**. 4 showtimes/78 tickets sold. More shows need to be added but this is pretty strong, just a bit below Watchers T-3, and even ahead of Bad Boys T-11 **(June 27)**. 42 tickets sold in just 2 showtimes on pretty small screens at T-18. That’s over half of Inside Out 2’s number with 6 more shows, and 30% of AQP D1, which had 10 more shows **(June 23)**.)
**The Lion King Re-Release**
– AniNate (Looks like Lion King rerelease tix are now on sale. Doesn’t seem like it’s super-wide so probably ought to check expectations there **(July 1)**.)
**Twisters Average EA/Thursday Comp: $1.27M/$4.93M**
– abracadabra1998 ($1.53M EA and $6.26M THU comp. Keeps doing really well in Minne! **(June 30)**. I must say, in “sort-of but not really but sometimes” tornado country, this is doing pretty well? **(June 27)**.)
– AniNate (Definitely ramping up in the target dem market at least **(July 1)**. Urban/suburban divide on this movie getting a lot more pronounced. Starting to see some movement on the weekend planner side **(June 28)**. Welp, now at the month point, so I would expect presales to start ramping up fairly soon if this is the kind of mid-America appeal film I’m thinking/hoping it will be **(June 19)**.)
– Flip (Meh **(June 30)**. Still hasn’t reached AQP’s first day of sales yet, but I think it’s slowly starting to accelerate **(June 28)**.)
– keysersoze123 (Ouch almost no pace. it barely grew in a week **(June 29)**. Still terrible at MTC1**(June 22)**. I am also not buying the huge predictions for Twisters ($71M+ OW). Its presales are not good and not sure the disaster genre is that easy a sell as well. I think 50m Ow is great for it. Plus I am surprised by the legs expected for the movie (2.88x-4.63x) **(June 21)**.)
– TheFlatLannister ($4.72M THU comp. No real movement **(July 1)**. Not much to add. Pace is still anemic **(June 28)**. Is this good? Yes. Am i seeing a $70M+ OW? No, but there’s still time I guess. Seeing more like $40M-$50M. (Don’t know if this makes sense comp-wise, but Garfield is at $5.14M) **(June 21)**.)
– Tinalera (Was going to look at Twisters for Vancouver/Alberta… Yea…..llike a ghost town **(June 25)**.)
– vafrow ($1.0M EA and $3.8M THU comp. The approach on EA showings really throw this off. Thankfully I have the Fall Guy numbers which had a similar set up, but the issue is that I have four of my theatres with Wednesday EA showings that’s grabbing the bulk of the sales. This would be ahead of both Bad Boys and KOTPOTA otherwise. However, The Fall Guy did well in EA sales but it didn’t translate to a strong performance in the end **(June 29)**. We’re starting to see some activity. Pacing a bit ahead of Fall Guy, both on previews and EA is encouraging. Especially since Fall Guy had a lot more aggressive marketing campaign at the outset. The reality is that it’s still low numbers overall, so it’s hard to read too much this far out. I wouldn’t look at these numbers and throw out a $70M opener like is being seen elsewhere, but I’m not ruling it out **(June 22)**.)
**Deadpool and Wolverine Average Thursday Comp: $33.40M**
– abracadabra1998 ($26.86M TERRIBLE Dune Part 2 comp.)
– Charlie Jatinder ($36.75M MCU THU Comp. $61M FRI Comp. Not a lock but I will say $225M is more likelier than $150M **(June 26)**. MTC 1 is at T-17 level of Thor 4. MTC 2 is at T-15. MiniTC2 is at T-14.5 ish. | Sure DP3 can open to just $150M but if you see it open to just $150M at this moment is because you want it to open to $150M. Sales don’t tell that, at least at this moment. Just for some context, DP3 sales are roughly where Thor 4 was at T-17 days i.e. roughly 15 days from now on **(June 25)**.)
– Flip (Good growth for this far out **(June 25)**.)
– keysersoze123 (I think this is the new level (200,190) as we are approaching final 3 weeks. Thor was at 247,907 at T-7. Of course there is inflation. But ATP will keep going down as it sells more as most tickets are standard. So we have to do the T-7 comps. That would anyway be my final update and so that is where I am looking at for now 🙂 **(July 2)**. It has definitely bottomed and slightly on the up side at the moment **(June 30)**. May be there was a small bump today. Its moving slower anyway for now **(June 28)**. Fan Shows are at 26k, total previews (including Fan Shows) at 189k, and FRI at 87k. FYI DS2 started its sales on this equivalent day and already sold 231K **(June 26)**. Only good comps for Deadpool are their 2022 movies as their previews would be similar to Deadpool. Until we see Deadpool rise against those comps nothing is off the table. Even sub 30m previews though I am not predicting that. The fact that MCU movie is come up after a long break is a plus for this movie. | I am willing to bet that Doctor Strange 2 level of Thursday previews aint happening. Tomorrow comps with DS2 will come online you will see how far back it is even with eternity of presales vs 1 day for DS2. | It had fantastic start to presales and now in steady state mode which is way lower than 2022 blockbusters due to super long sales cycle. I think Wakanda comps are online and I think real time to comp these movies would be around T-7 time period when pace of all these movies should be similar and we can extrapolate where it will end. I still think Thor is the best comp as it was a july release and IM will be close to Thor than say Wakanda which released during Veteran’s day weekend. At this point the floor is 30/150 (unless it pulls a Marvels in its final week which is unlikely). Ceiling depends on many factors including rumors around who is there and how that can help pull in audience beyond atypical MCU fare. My prediction is 32/160 expecting a moving with middling reviews like normal Shawn Levy joint. MTC1 skew (compared to MTC2) is higher than usual due to fan shows just in MTC1. That has sold almost 85% of tickets. That is way stronger than overall preview sales skewing the numbers **(June 25)**. Still I think Thor would be the best comp. That will take couple of weeks before the comps make sense **(June 24)**. I am thinking $32M/$160M THU/OW for now. Just waiting on it to come inside Thor PS window. Only exception is if Taylor has a non trivial role. That could boost OW to 190m+ **(June 23)**.)
– M37 (I agree that there should be some caution in presuming this particular film will behave in sale patterns like a typical CMB, specifically the MCU. While I don’t disagree the there will probably be some level of GA-action draw that a typical MCU saga film won’t have, the catch-22 is that the R rating is going to limit family and teen attendance, generally two of the most late buying audience, as well as skewing more male, which impacts the when of sales patterns. Couple that audience nuance with the extremely long pre-sale period, and I’m hesitant to swallow those current MCU comps pointing to $30M+. My expectation is that the U-curve is going to bottom out here far more than usual, those comps value will fall, but we’ll see a stronger last week/GA surge to compensate, while also probably more concentrated in major metros, PLFs, and with higher ATP. Frankly, much more akin to a DC film like Batman than BPWF or Thor L&T. My current ballpark expectation is for a high $20Ms Thursday preview (but ask me again when we get to T-21 or T-14). Still clearly #2 for summer and the year (to that point), but not in any way making a run at Lion King’s July OW record **(June 25)**.)
– Porthos ($32.06M MCU THU Comp. Pace looks to be picking up slightly **(July 2)**. Pretty decent sized jump tonight over the average of the last week or so. More or less what I was expecting as it’s still pretty far out. I expect it to come back down to earth tomorrow, though there might still be some residual ticket sales from awareness from buzz/discussion **(June 29)**. Roughly at T-20 locally for presale tickets (L&T T-20: 5525 | DP3 T-31: 5519) but perhaps quibbling. I would point out though that since Thor 4 started out at T-24, it was much more concentrated than most other MCU films we’ve been discussing, and especially DP3. | $29.44M Doctor Strange 2 comp near same point in time before release. If we add another 80 tickets or so over the next couple of days, the comp rises to 29.9m, more or less. This is, of course, without any sort of ATP adjustment that has dominated discussion of the last couple of pages. Of course, that comp will drop in a hurry as MoM has its initial surge. Still, this will be the high water mark on a pure (unrepresentative ATP) comp until later in the pre-sale cycle. | After T-30, BP2 comp will settle into a more or less reliable pattern for the next couple of weeks, with an average sales of approx 121 tickets per day. DP3, by comparison, was reliably selling around 50 to 55 tickets per day for the last month, but has been sub-50 four out of the last six days. So something to keep an eye on in the case of DP3, though it might just be the very bottom of the U-curve/randomness at play. Either way, even at 60 a pop versus 120 a pop, it’s not gonna take long at all for BP2 to “overtake” DP3 once tomorrows 161 is factored in. On the other hand, even if we set aside ATP hikes since late 2022 (and we shouldn’t) Deadpool and Wolverine is still an R-rated movie. Even with some “cool parents” out there, the ATP will be decently higher than most recent MCU films while suppressing the overall sales numbers. That being said, I don’t know if the ATP will be quite as high as some popular R-rated films lately as this should still draw a higher percentage of kids tickets being sold. But then there’s the 3D factor which Deadpool has… The other major thing I’m curious about is whether or not this will be slightly more GA-skewing than a typical CBM. It’s more than a little silly to wonder about this, if only because of the insanely long pre-sale window burning up demand, but I do tend to wonder if the high action/adult-ish content of the film will play a role here in ticket buying patterns. Do think the later social media/review rollouts matter more, but I still wonder if the folks who typically buy tickets to R-rated action shoot ’em ups are still staying on the sidelines and waiting ’till closer to release. In the end, DP3 is gonna obliterate the R-rated preview record held by… DP2 ($18.6m). But because it’s gonna obliterate said record and because the highest R-rated film since theaters reopened is Oppenheimer at 10.5m, finding a good ATP comp for this film is probably going to be… challenging. Never mind figuring out a good pre-sale pattern comp **(June 25)**. BP2 over indexed in my tracking region (Sacramento) very slightly. | BP2 is likely to “overtake” DP3 much sooner than 20 days. Thor 4 is going to be a pretty bad comp for almost the entire run thanks to (A) DP3 having literally a month-and-a-half more days of pre-sales (DP3: T-66 | L&T: T-24) and (B) Thor 4 being relatively backloaded thanks to holiday timing and later review embargo lift. Mind DP3 also has a late review lift (as well as social media embargo) which is one of the reasons to think that it could have a strong finish. But 42 extra days of pre-sales is gonna put a tremendous thumb on the scale and by the time it may or may not equalize then we get into rollout timing differences **(June 24)**. For long releases of MCU/SW Saga caliber, it usually takes about 6 to 8 days for the initial wave to stop. The Rise of Skywalker didn’t really “bottom out” until D9 or so (T-51). Then at T-21, more or less, it started up its acceleration again. Can see similar patterns for MCU long runners (May 24).)
– TheFlatLannister ($34.76M GotG3 THU Comp. Probably 280 seats per a loc for fan shows here. Don’t think those showings are wide enough to really move the needle much past an extra $1m or so. | I don’t have any comps but it sold 6k tickets over the past 30ish days which is bonkers. | Hit the 7k target I set a few weeks ago. Amazing growth considering we still have 4 weeks left. I’m sticking with a way too early $35M+ number **(June 26)**. I think this clears $30M preview with ease. $20Ms just feels way too low for the start it had (I haven’t checked my data recently but it was well above anything I’ve ever tracked) **(June 25)**.)
– Tinalera (Slow Steady growth still. Montreal esp showing some more life, so its gaining nicely there **(July 2)**. Slowing a little bit but still pretty steady esp for those Thurs nights which are hovering around 24=27 percent mark with just less than a month to go **(June 29)**.)
– vafrow ($36.55M THU Comp. Growth is probably understated as I’m pretty sure I had a counting error of about 40 on an IMAX screening last time **(June 29)**. Only Marvel film tracked is The Marvels, which it’s doing much better than **(June 25)**. Staying at about 1% growth a day isn’t too bad at this stage **(June 22)**.)
**Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 2**
– FANDANGO (When you sign up for the Frontier Pass and then purchase a ticket to Chapter One get a promotional code towards Chapter Two. Requires enrollment in the free Frontier Pass FanAlert™ program and purchasing 1 or more ticket for Chapter 1 between 9:00am PT on 6/12/24 and 11:59pm PT on 7/15/24 at a participating theater. Purchasers receive an email containing 1 Fandango Promotional Code for 50% off the purchase of 1 movie ticket to Chapter Two on Fandango, when tickets become available. Code is void if not redeemed by 11/15/24, or when ‘Horizon: An American Saga Chapter Two’ is no longer in theaters, whichever comes first. One-time use only. Void where prohibited. Offer is non-transferable and cannot be combined with any other offer or discount. Offer valid in the U.S. only **(June 12)**.)
**Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated June 17):**
**JULY**
– (July 3) Opening Day [WED: Despicable Me 4 (including Super Ticket showings)]
– (July 3) Early Access [WED: MaXXXine]
– (July 3) Previews [WED: Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot]
– (July 4) Opening Day [THU: Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot]
– (July 5) Opening Day [FRI: MaXXXine]
– (July 5) EA [Fly Me to the Moon]
– (July 5) Presales Start [Dandelion and Oddity]
– (July 6) Despicable Me 4 MEGA SAT Family Event (SAT: Marcus Exclusive?)
– (July 9) Review Embargo Lifts [Fly Me to the Moon (6 AM PT)]
– (July 11) THU Previews [Fly Me to the Moon + Longlegs + Lumina]
– (July 12) Opening Day [FRI: The Lion King 1994 Re-Release]
– (July 16) Review Embargo Lifts [Twisters (12 PM ET)]
– (July 17) EA [Twisters]
– (July 18) THU Previews [Oddity + Twisters]
– (July 22) Deadpool and Wolverine Premiere (Reviews and Social Media Reactions to follow???)
– (July 25) THU Previews [Deadpool and Wolverine (including 1 PLF fan show at 3 PM) + Didi + Fabulous Four]
– (July 29) Presales Start [Alien: Romulus + It Ends With Us]
**AUGUST**
– (August 1) THU Previews [Cuckoo + Harold and the Purple Crayon]
– (August 5) Presales Start [Borderlands]
– (August 8) THU Previews [Borderlands + It Ends With Us + Trap]
– (August 12) Presales Start [Alien: Romulus]
– (August 15) THU Previews [Alien: Romulus + Horizon: Chapter 2 + Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure]
– (August 22) THU Previews [Blink Twice + The Crow + The Forge + Slingshot]
– (August 29) THU Previews [City of Dreams + Reagan + They Listen]
**Presale Tracking Posts:**
[May 18](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cvi8t5/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_18/)
[May 21](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cxwol9/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_21_total/)
[May 23](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cz3h1j/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_23_bad_boys/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[May 25](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d0orj1/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_25_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[May 28](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d3628t/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_28_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[May 30](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d4jgng/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_30_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d6aq58/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_june_1_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 4](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1d8gct8/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_june_4_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 6](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1da36t8/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_june_6_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 8](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dba5i3/bot_presale_tracking_june_8_lord_of_the_rings/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 13](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1df1c72/bot_presale_tracking_june_13_the_bikeriders_and/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 15](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dh3pfm/bot_presale_tracking_june_15_thursday_comps_a/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 20](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dkw4de/bot_presale_tracking_june_20_average_thursday/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 22](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dmc8ar/bot_presale_tracking_june_22_thursday_comps_a/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 25](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dpen99/bot_presale_tracking_june_25_thursday_comps_quiet/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 27](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1dqcq36/bot_presale_tracking_june_28_thursday_comps/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[June 29](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1drs3ry/bot_presale_tracking_june_30_thursday_comps/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.
by BOfficeStats
1 Comment
>Not a lock but I will say $225M is more likelier than $150M **(June 26)**
We are going to witness first 200M opener since 2021, aren’t we.