Hi,
I'm Clayton Davis, Awards Editor for Variety magazine.
Hosting my first AMA on reddit to answer questions about this year's slate of movies (what's been seen and what's to come) and what could find love in the upcoming Oscar Race in the Best Picture and acting races.
Keep it respectful.
Down below are some of my recent bylines and thoughts from the past week.
https://variety.com/lists/2025-oscars-predictions/ https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/natasha-lyonne-elizabeth-olsen-supporting-actress-his-three-daughters-1236146482/ https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/deadpool-and-wolverine-oscars-hugh-jackman-supporting-actor-1236155969/ https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/lady-gaga-selena-gomez-ariana-grande-oscars-supporting-actress-1236154750/ https://variety.com/lists/2025-oscars-best-supporting-actress-predictions/ https://variety.com/2024/film/awards/danielle-deadwyler-the-piano-lesson-oscars-supporting-actress-1236153386/
by ByClaytonDavis
20 Comments
I checked your Gold Derby predictions and you don’t predict Nicole Kidman in Best Actress. ANy reason for that? Have you seen the movie?
Do you think anora Can win best picture and director ?
Do you actually think it is gonna sweep original screenplay ?
I’ve noticed you have a lot of faith in Gladiator 2 succeeding at the Oscars, especially with your current prediction of Ridley Scott winning Best Director. What is giving you so much confidence in the movie, especially given Ridley Scott’s recent output? Have you seen Gladiator 2 and are your predictions based on what you saw or are you simply trying to be bold this early in the awards season?
Keep up the great work by the way. I enjoy listening to your Awards Circuit podcast.
I saw that you put Saturday Night in several technical categories, such as Sound. I was just wondering if it’s a real contender for those specific categories. In my own predictions, I only had it in Original Screenplay. Could you elaborate on why you think it’s a contender?
what do you make of Saturday Night’s start so far?? It looks like you’re predicting it to be nominated across the board but the reviews look pretty rough and it blanked at the Toronto People’s Choice Award, which seems to indicate pretty low appeal…
Clay Davis? THE Clay Davis? Downtown Clay Davis? I’m gonna have to sit this one out, boss.
Hey Clayton, thanks for stopping by.
1. Will you be moderating at SCAD Savannah this year again?
2. What do you think of the movie by Neon to skip this year and release **The Life of Chuck** in Summer 2025 instead?
Would you say Emilia Perez has a good shot at scoring 3/3 acting nominations? (Gascon in lead, Saldaña & Gomez in supporting)
What’s the biggest dark horse right now?
I saw you are a BAFTA member. Are you British? If not, how did you come into membership?
**September 5** hype, real or overblown?
Hi Clayton, what makes you so confident in Gladiator II this season? Now that you’re predicting it to outright win Best Director.
Thoughts on The Brutalist? I noticed you didn’t have Guy Pearce and Felicity Jones predicted in the acting categories. But you did put Adrien Brody in for best actor
Is there any specific reason why you don’t have The Brutalist in your predictions for supporting actor, supporting actress, cinematography and production design or you just haven’t seen the movie yet?
Are you seeing the possibility of a Challengers resurgence?
What are the chances of Dune 2 getting recognition outside of technical categories? People seem high on acting nom possibilities, but it seems Timmy and Zendaya have a better chance of getting in for Complete Unknown/Challengers. Will Bardem sneak one? Is it going to be on the best picture shortlist? Or will the release date and the genre keep it from staying ahead or the late year releases?
Why do you think Sing Sing is missing picture/screenplay?
Hi Clayton!
I have a few questions regarding A24’s priority this award season.
What do you think will be A24s priority ranking this season?
With the acquisitions of The Brutalist and Queer, will it deter Sing Sing and potentially Civil Wars small push for tech categories?
Also, do you think Dune 2 still has a chance for Director and Picture, or has Anora and The Brutalist taken over most of the discussions amongst Oscar voters?
Last question
Do you think Amazon/MGM will prioritize The Nickel Boys or Challengers?
What is it about *Conclave* / Ralph Fiennes’s performance that has made him the apparent favorite of the moment for Best Actor?
I noticed you have Julianne Moore really low in your Best Actress predictions despite being pretty high on The Room Next Door overall. Is it solely because of the rarity of double lead noms, or is it because Julianne doesn’t have the material for a nomination?