BOT Presale Tracking (September 29). Joker: Folie á Deux eyeing ~$7M previews according to trackers (Average Thursday Comp at $8.44M). Terrifier 3 seems to have strong presales across the USA.

BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking

Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)

BoxOfficeReport Previews

Quorum Updates:

• September 27

• September 27 Weekly Unaided Awareness

• September 25

• September 23

• September 20

• September 20 Weekly Unaided Awareness

• September 18

• September 16

Joker: Folie á Deux Average Thursday Comp: $8.44M

• Caption Action 3 (Open caption pre-sales are so bad that we can say only one word: Run. As in run away. 222 open caption screentimes documented so far, with only 133 advance tickets sold. Super-low ratio of .60. This thing is struggling to make it to even a 1.0 ticket to screentime ratio, and with the threshold for a box office blockbuster being at least 20.00, this movie is increasingly looking like box office poison. At this point the only thing that might save it from being a total disaster at the box office would be decent reviews. Even that might not be enough, if the numbers we are seeing are any indication. On top of that, the zero sold percentage is currently at 87.39%, the highest we have ever seen for a movie we tracked (September 29). Looked at The Wild Robot for Saturday/Sunday open caption screenings at AMC/Cinemark. Several AMCs not having OC screenings of TWR Saturday/Sunday. 50 screenings checked, NYC skewing the data, so far a 5.60 ticket to screentime ratio. Not great, but better than Joker is doing right now – that one has 213 screentimes so far, only 133 tickets sold, (including New York City) a dismal ticket to screentime ratio of 0.62 (September 28) Open caption pre-sales are horrible at this point. So far have documented 52 screentimes, and of those, there's a basement-level ticket to screentime ratio of 0.17. Sales will need to really pick up closer to opening to get this to a respectable number (September 18).)

• Charlie Jatinder (responding to Menor the Destroyer: Friday being less than Marvels is a surprise since this being heavier in bigger cities should have bigger spillover theoretically. Edit: I see, THU is way way short of Marvels relative to FRI. So make sense. Yes there are EA but they are on Monday so I am gonna ignore them, besides they wont grow much I believe (September 21).)

• filmpalace (Good growth today (September 23). Staying steady (September 20). Solid growth today (September 19). Steady growth these past few days (September 17).)

• Flip ($12.01M THU and $48.8M FRI comp. heading for 7-8m from what I can gather (September 29). Very strong growth (September 21). Pace is fine, I missed yesterday but I think the Deadpool comp would’ve been ~9m. By the end of Sunday it should be over 400 tickets sold (September 20). Added more FRI comps, Trap* overindexed (looking like Joker will do the same), and Romulus had a very slow start so I want to see how Joker paces versus that .this was Trap’s first day of sales so I’d expect this number to drop. | It’s surprising how good the THU pace has been considering there hasn’t been anything like reviews dropping or new trailers/ promotions *(September 17). Still on good pace **(September 16). Deadpool grew 26.9% before the next time I checked it (T-13), Joker should look to around match that. | Still pacing well (September 15).)

• keysersoze123 (It has doubled from MTC1 day 1 presales and has 12-13 days to go. Issue is the number is still meh. I think it opens > Marvels but that is not a good number anyway (September 21).)

• Menor the Destroyer (MTC1: Under Flash at the same point for both EA+Thu and Fri. Combined Thu+EA is barely ahead of Marvels but Fri is less (September 21)).)

• Ryan C (Still not seeing much that's pointing towards this overcoming a disappointing opening. Warner Bros. really needs to hope this plays like a non traditional comic-book movie in the final week of pre-sales (September 23). It's good that the pace isn't just staying static from last week when tickets when on sale, but I don't think this is strong enough to not be concerned if this is headed for a low opening. Almost all of the EA showings are sold out (I wouldn't be surprised if 100% capacity is reached within the next week), but the Thursday showings are still lagging. Showings that should be sold out or at least really close to selling out just aren't. Like I said last week, the hope is that this doesn't play like a traditional fan-driven comic-book movie and has stronger walk-up business as we get closer to the release date. We shouldn't rule that out, but this is gonna have to work real hard within the next two-and-a-half weeks to make up for a weak pre-sales start (Sep. 16).)

• TheFlatLannister ($6.50M THU Florida Comp. The Marvels had pretty weak presales, very comparable to Joker I would say (September 28). Wasn't going to post numbers since much hasn't changed, but per request here they are. | No way $50M can be the floor. Assuming it goes crazy and makes a strong late push getting to $8M previews, same IM as Joker 2019 only gets it to $58M. Likely scenario is it makes $7M previews for just O/U $50M OW (September 21). No major change on Thursday presales (September 19). Flash had stronger presales than what Joker 2 is currently seeing. Flash actually had okay/good presales up til the final week where it collapsed. EA was also really strong if I remember correctly. | Anyways presales I currently have aren’t showing an acceleration or a collapse. It’s just flat right now (September 15).)

• Tinalera (Didnt get any of the Mon or Wed Preview days. 19 days out kind of hard to say how things are going. There really hasnt been much promotion (that Ive seen around this area, others may vary). Kind of quiet really (September 15).)

• vafrow ($3.3M EA and $6.8M THU Comp. A bit of a slow day. It's expected on the weekend, but if this has any shot at changing it's $6-7M path, it needs to gain pace on comps (September 29). Looking at comps, the ones that have been the most stable are probably GxK, HG: BoSS and Romulus ($7.5M). GxK had great walk ups due to Easter weekend and Friday being a holiday, so it's probably overstating. HG: BoSS might have over performed as Joker isn't faring that well. Romulus probably is the best option ($7.5M). I'm really surprised that Beetlejuice seems to be serving as such a poor comp. It didn't feel like it grossly underindexed in my market when it was going through. The EA shows are actually getting closer to capacity. There's still lots of seats, but for those that like quality seats for an imax showing, the logical move is to wait a few days and watch it Thursday. EA shows are so difficult to predict based on historical, that I wouldn't put any faith in those numbers (September 28). I don't have time to really try and interpret what's going on, but growth rate was slower at tje beginning of the week and is speeding up the last couple of days, but that's expected one week out (September 27). Fairly uneventful day (September 23). I added more EA shows. That's still hard to pin down. Growth in all areas remains steady (September 22). Slight decline against comps after being steady in the other direction. Nothing of concern, but will be key to watch if it's a trend (September 21). Growth rate continues to be solid. It settled around 5% a day earlier in the week, but moving up to 10% already (September 20). This has maintained a steady pace all week, on the higher end of my expectations. It has increased against comps (September 18). MCU is usually the prototypical front loaded property for advance sales, so lagging The Marvels at this stage isn't the end of the world. Its probably not going to catch up on mine, but it can close the gap. | Growth is staying in a nice healthy range. The comps I do have at this stage started earlier, so were closer to the bottom of the U at the time, while Joker still has first week momentum. Still, it's not bad. Note, as I saw a few people here and elsewhere try to extrapolate this. This isn't a huge acceleration or anything. It's just good, decent growth after a very slow start (September 15).)

• VanillaSkies (Lady Gaga just released an album called “harlequin” which is supposedly a companion album to Joker 2. That might be why there is more acceleration the past couple of days (September 27).)

White Bird

• Skim Beeble (Tickets for White Bird are on sale and have sold 21 tickets around me which is way more than I thought it would do for the initial start of presales for its opening weekend (September 25).)

Devara Part 1

The Apprentice

• filmlover (Tickets for it are on sale now (September 25).)

Piece by Piece

• AniNate (Doesn't seem like it's getting a very wide release. Of the theaters I was tracking only Valley View and Robinson Township have showtimes up, and of those only sold two tickets so far for previews (September 25).)

• vafrow (Piece by Piece is up for sale on MTC4, but there's only two locations showing it in all of the Greater Toronto Area, and neither are in my radius. I don't think this has huge commercial appeal or anything, but what's the point of this if it isn't getting a moderate release (September 18).)

Saturday Night

• misterpepp (Tix sale date delayed to Oct 1 (September 25). The NY/LA tickets went on sale today. Nationwide expansion tix still go on sale the same aforementioned date (September 23) (September 11).)

Terrifier 3

• CINEVERSE (Cineverse Chairman and CEO Chris McGurk added: "Terrifier 3 is poised to exceed the performance of its predecessor. The momentum behind the film, combined with incredible early ticket sales and enthusiasm from fans, suggests that we're heading for an unprecedented release that could challenge major studio horror titles this season." Early tracking indicates that ticket sales for Terrifier 3 are outpacing major studio releases (September 23).)

• CompoundTheGains (NEED more showings in Rhode Island as theaters are getting full for Thursday night!!!! | Michigan sales seem really really good to me. Michigan is by far the least tickets sold per theater or showing of the 8 states I’m following but also had slightly more growth this last time vs CA or MA that I’ve gotten around to updating recently. These presales per showing are way ahead of other movies being tracked but doesn’t have as many showings either. The hope is the sales keep coming and expand into Friday-Sunday more and more. Terrifier 2 had long legs for eight weeks. It will be interesting how the sales arc goes this time. What is clear is that it is gonna beat Terrifier 2 numbers and very likely quite significantly. | Only a couple new theaters added to Massachusetts presale tracking since last update (I’m sticking with my original 21 theaters to track) and no new showings in these 21 theaters for Thursday. Some of these showings are packed. Hopefully the chains are watching the presales and make sure they provide enough capacity to maximize ticket sales (September 27). I do think the % of tickets sold of some of the showings may drive more tickets for weekend showings soon and as we get closer to October 10 we may see less “growth” in Thursday sales because the theaters are simply full at some locations so people will chose a showing on a later date (September 26). What do people make of Terrifier 3 pre-sales? Universal Cinema AMC at CityWalk Hollywood with 248 tickets sold opening weekend. AMC Burbank 16 with 218 tickets sold opening weekend. AMC’s in CA for first showing only of Thursday night: Norwalk—over 60 tickets sold, Montclair and Ontario both over 50, Orange, Fullerton, City of Industry all over 40 tickets sold for first opening showing. Edinburg Texas AMC with over 60 tickets sold in first Thursday showing. Lake Buena Vista Florida AMC close to 70 tickets sold for first Thursday showing. Methuen MA AMC 50+ tickets first showing Thursday. Danvers MA over 40 tickets. You find these numbers scattered throughout the country and still being over 3 weeks from opening (September 18).)

• filmpalace (This is actually selling really well in the theaters I'm tracking as well. Not sure how much of a fan rush is behind the sales, but if it can keep up the pace, I think it might actually have a shot at an opening weekend around 10M (September 26).)

• Ryan C (Not sure how big this will be, but it definitely has potential for a $5M+ opening if more theaters get to book the film and the number of showtimes gets an increase. For now though, it's absolutely looking like this will be a mini-breakout sequel (September 26).)

Smile 2

• Boxofficerules (Smile 2 tickets are up for sale at my local (September 12).)

Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated September 8):

SEPTEMBER

• (Sep. 30) Presales Start [Smile 2]

• (Sep. 30) Opening Day [MON: Old Guy]

• (Sep. 30) Early Access [Joker: Folie à Deux: 7pm IMAX Fan First Premieres]

OCTOBER

• (Oct. 1) Presales Start [Nightmare Before Christmas + Saturday Night + Venom: The Last Dance]

• (Oct. 2) Early Access [Piece by Piece (Dolby Cinema)]

• (Oct. 3) Thursday Previews [Joker: Folie á Deux + Monster Summer + White Bird: A Wonder Story]

• (Oct. 4) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Furious 7]

• (Oct. 10) Presales Start [Anora]

• (Oct. 10) Thursday Previews [Devara Part 1 + The Apprentice + My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next + Piece by Piece + Saturday Night + Terrifier 3]

• (Oct. 11) Opening Day [Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas Re-Release]

• (Oct. 11) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Coco]

• (Oct. 17) Thursday Previews [Goodrich + Smile 2]

• (Oct. 18) Opening Day [Hocus Pocus]

• (Oct. 24) Thursday Previews [Venom: The Last Dance]

Presale Tracking Posts:

August 27

August 29

August 31

September 3

September 11

September 14

September 16

September 18

September 21

September 24

September 26

Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.