I’ve made predictions as to what I think these will make but wanted to see what people thought each movie would need to make to be seen as a success potentially without breaking the $1bn barrier.
You can also include your RT predictions and the like and do domestic / WW. The more detailed the better.
by Aerynsw
7 Comments
we don’t have any idea about the actual budgets.
but assuming 200mill for each of them, gives us 500mill for break even, so 600-650mill can be considered a successful run with profits.
if it’s 250mill, then 625mill for break even, and 750mill+ will be considered a success with good profits.
a 300mill budget and anything below 900mill would be a disappointment
Unknowable because we don’t have confirmed budgets yet.
Cap America according to some source has a [350 million final cost](https://m.imdb.com/news/ni64673225/) (including many extended reshoots), but I’m pretty sure this number does include tax incentives, which could lead net budget to a final 275 million cost, which in line with MCU movies that rely on heavy CGI work.
Then the most pragmatic answer is 2.5x 275M, then 687 million to break even.
The correct answer is sadly “we can only estimate.”
+600 million / 85% fresh on RT
Cap 4 – 75% RT DOM/OS – 270/675M
Thunderbolt – 80%+ RT DOM/OS – 250/500M
Superman – 85-90%+ RT DOM/OS – 300/750M
F4 – 80%+ RT DOM/OS – 300/750M
Superman has to work harder with WoM and acclaim because it doesn’t have the MCU factor
Superman will be the best RT movie. It will have the best reception, but probably will lose to F4.