BOT Presale Tracking (October 1). Thursday Comps: Joker: Folie á Deux ($7.74M), Smile 2 ($3.46M), and Venom: The Last Dance ($6.52M).

BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking

Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)

BoxOfficeReport Previews

Quorum Updates:

• September 30

• September 27

• September 27 Weekly Unaided Awareness

• September 25

• September 23

• September 20

• September 20 Weekly Unaided Awareness

• September 18

Joker: Folie á Deux Average Thursday Comp: $7.74M

• DEADLINE (Similar to the first Joker, Warners world premiered this sequel at Venice, though that didn’t help in regards to reviews, which stand at 62% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes (vs. the first movie’s 69% with critics). This hasn’t helped presales, which currently indicate a lower opening than $55M, though sources believe Joker 2 can get to its current forecast. Previews start Thursday at 3 p.m. Stateside for Joker 2 has first choice first for older males, followed by younger males under 25, then older females over 25 (October 1).)

• Caption Action 3 (Open caption pre-sales are so bad that we can say only one word: Run. As in run away. 222 open caption screentimes documented so far, with only 133 advance tickets sold. Super-low ratio of .60. This thing is struggling to make it to even a 1.0 ticket to screentime ratio, and with the threshold for a box office blockbuster being at least 20.00, this movie is increasingly looking like box office poison. At this point the only thing that might save it from being a total disaster at the box office would be decent reviews. Even that might not be enough, if the numbers we are seeing are any indication. On top of that, the zero sold percentage is currently at 87.39%, the highest we have ever seen for a movie we tracked (September 29). Looked at The Wild Robot for Saturday/Sunday open caption screenings at AMC/Cinemark. Several AMCs not having OC screenings of TWR Saturday/Sunday. 50 screenings checked, NYC skewing the data, so far a 5.60 ticket to screentime ratio. Not great, but better than Joker is doing right now – that one has 213 screentimes so far, only 133 tickets sold, (including New York City) a dismal ticket to screentime ratio of 0.62 (September 28) Open caption pre-sales are horrible at this point. So far have documented 52 screentimes, and of those, there's a basement-level ticket to screentime ratio of 0.17. Sales will need to really pick up closer to opening to get this to a respectable number (September 18).)

• Charlie Jatinder ($5.85M THU and $15.95M FRI Comp. The comps are on an increasing trend for THU. Should hit $7M final + $1M early shows. Same for FRI, increasing trend (October 1). responding to Menor the Destroyer: Friday being less than Marvels is a surprise since this being heavier in bigger cities should have bigger spillover theoretically. Edit: I see, THU is way way short of Marvels relative to FRI. So make sense. Yes there are EA but they are on Monday so I am gonna ignore them, besides they wont grow much I believe (September 21).)

• crazymoviekid ($11.75M THU and $29.90M FRI Comp. This could still swing low, but the strongest average is around $13M for THU. A little scattershot right now, but I'll go for $20M FRI (October 1). Idk man. Sales by me are fine. Only way this is going down is if it plays like an MCU title. $9M+ for now (September 30).)

• filmpalace (Good growth today (September 23). Staying steady (September 20). Solid growth today (September 19). Steady growth these past few days (September 17).)

• Flip ($11.72M THU and $48.8M FRI comp. Bad day pace wise but considering the numbers I’m getting don’t reflect themselves in other markets it doesn’t move any needle for me. Still thinking ~7m, not sure if they’ll throw in the fan event or if they’ll spread that out. Tomorrow it should sell at least 120 tickets hopefully, and if it does so the final comp with Deadpool will come out to 12.1m, which is a decent # but as I explained in an earlier post Joker will definitely overindex by a fair amount (October 1). heading for 7-8m from what I can gather (September 29). Very strong growth (September 21). Pace is fine, I missed yesterday but I think the Deadpool comp would’ve been ~9m. By the end of Sunday it should be over 400 tickets sold (September 20). Added more FRI comps, Trap* overindexed (looking like Joker will do the same), and Romulus had a very slow start so I want to see how Joker paces versus that .this was Trap’s first day of sales so I’d expect this number to drop. | It’s surprising how good the THU pace has been considering there hasn’t been anything like reviews dropping or new trailers/ promotions *(September 17)**.)

• Grand Cine (responding to Menor the Destroyer: Around 10% more for Joker 2 compared to The Marvels' Friday from this pace, so around 16-16,5M for True Friday at this point (October 1). Comparing your MTC1 data with the Marvels comp, it's around 6M with EA, and 10M True Friday. But the worst is the pace between T-13 and T-4 , the pace is around the half of Marvels 😬 (September 30).)

• jeffthehat ($5.08M THU Comp. Good day. Switched up comps a bit (October 1).)

• keysersoze123 (It has doubled from MTC1 day 1 presales and has 12-13 days to go. Issue is the number is still meh. I think it opens > Marvels but that is not a good number anyway (September 21).)

• Menor the Destroyer (MTC1: So this was in fact wrong as I suspected yesterday, and it's because these numbers are for Fri and Sat respectively instead of Thu and Fri. Now this seems more in line with others instead of the really low Friday show count relative to Thu that was giving me pause. Still very bad numbers as Fri is still under Flash, but they at least make more sense (October 1). Yeah the pace is one thing that is slightly odd, I almost wonder if I'm missing some data. | Low numbers, similar to/under Marvels and The Flash at the same point (September 30). Under Flash at the same point for both EA+Thu and Fri. Combined Thu+EA is barely ahead of Marvels but Fri is less (September 21)).)

• Ryan C (Though this isn't amazing, I'm actually surprised at the jump this had from yesterday. I didn't think it would be over 10%, but it is and if it keeps pacing like this for the next two days, then maybe we'll be a preview number in the $7M range. Hopefully more (including EA screenings). I'd predict a preview number (at best) between The Marvels' $6.6M and The Flash's $9.7M (October 1). Judging by the numbers I was tracking today, it was a substantial increase from last time (and before more showtimes will be added tomorrow), but it's still not nearly enough to convince me that this movie isn't going to have a disappointing opening. Below $40M seems insane based on the numbers I'm seeing, but clearly something is up in the markets for it to get that low. We should not be expecting that high of an opening. I'll predict somewhere in the range of The Flash ($55M) for now, but things could always get worse or better depending on its pace these next few days (September 30). Still not seeing much that's pointing towards this overcoming a disappointing opening. Warner Bros. really needs to hope this plays like a non traditional comic-book movie in the final week of pre-sales (September 23). It's good that the pace isn't just staying static from last week when tickets when on sale, but I don't think this is strong enough to not be concerned if this is headed for a low opening. Almost all of the EA showings are sold out (I wouldn't be surprised if 100% capacity is reached within the next week), but the Thursday showings are still lagging. Showings that should be sold out or at least really close to selling out just aren't. Like I said last week, the hope is that this doesn't play like a traditional fan-driven comic-book movie and has stronger walk-up business as we get closer to the release date. We shouldn't rule that out, but this is gonna have to work real hard within the next two-and-a-half weeks to make up for a weak pre-sales start (Sep. 16).)

• TalismanRing ($6.38M THU Comp.)

• TheFlatLannister ($6.33M THU Florida Comp and $6.07M THU Orlando Comp. Probably $6.5M+ previews maybe even $7M when accounting for Monday EA. | Good recovery today. Still looks good for $6M+ previews. If early toxic WOM is spreading, we might see some signs tomorrow (October 1). Pace has fallen off a cliff. Starting to hit that YIKES moment in presales (September 30). Hurricane caused several MTC shutdowns so pace has been wonky. Might update later today as everything seems to be back online (September 30). The Marvels had pretty weak presales, very comparable to Joker I would say (September 28). Wasn't going to post numbers since much hasn't changed, but per request here they are. | No way $50M can be the floor. Assuming it goes crazy and makes a strong late push getting to $8M previews, same IM as Joker 2019 only gets it to $58M. Likely scenario is it makes $7M previews for just O/U $50M OW (September 21). No major change on Thursday presales (September 19).)

• vafrow ($3.0M EA and $7.1M THU Comp. This had a pretty strong day. Gained a bit on THU comps. With THU comps though ranging all over the place, it's hard to say where it might land overall (October 1). Nothing too substantial today. No big movement either direction. The EA shows remain difficult to read (September 30). A bit of a slow day. It's expected on the weekend, but if this has any shot at changing it's $6-7M path, it needs to gain pace on comps (September 29). Looking at comps, the ones that have been the most stable are probably GxK, HG: BoSS and Romulus ($7.5M). GxK had great walk ups due to Easter weekend and Friday being a holiday, so it's probably overstating. HG: BoSS might have over performed as Joker isn't faring that well. Romulus probably is the best option ($7.5M). I'm really surprised that Beetlejuice seems to be serving as such a poor comp. It didn't feel like it grossly underindexed in my market when it was going through. The EA shows are actually getting closer to capacity. There's still lots of seats, but for those that like quality seats for an imax showing, the logical move is to wait a few days and watch it Thursday. EA shows are so difficult to predict based on historical, that I wouldn't put any faith in those numbers (September 28). I don't have time to really try and interpret what's going on, but growth rate was slower at tje beginning of the week and is speeding up the last couple of days, but that's expected one week out (September 27). Fairly uneventful day (September 23). I added more EA shows. That's still hard to pin down. Growth in all areas remains steady (September 22). Slight decline against comps after being steady in the other direction. Nothing of concern, but will be key to watch if it's a trend (September 21). Growth rate continues to be solid. It settled around 5% a day earlier in the week, but moving up to 10% already (September 20). This has maintained a steady pace all week, on the higher end of my expectations. It has increased against comps (September 18).)

• VanillaSkies (Lady Gaga just released an album called “harlequin” which is supposedly a companion album to Joker 2. That might be why there is more acceleration the past couple of days (September 27).)

White Bird

• Skim Beeble (Tickets for White Bird are on sale and have sold 21 tickets around me which is way more than I thought it would do for the initial start of presales for its opening weekend (September 25).)

Devara Part 1

The Apprentice

• filmlover (Tickets for it are on sale now (September 25).)

Piece by Piece

• AniNate (Doesn't seem like it's getting a very wide release. Of the theaters I was tracking only Valley View and Robinson Township have showtimes up, and of those only sold two tickets so far for previews (September 25).)

• vafrow (Piece by Piece is up for sale on MTC4, but there's only two locations showing it in all of the Greater Toronto Area, and neither are in my radius. I don't think this has huge commercial appeal or anything, but what's the point of this if it isn't getting a moderate release (September 18).)

Saturday Night

• misterpepp (Tix sale date delayed to Oct 1 (September 25). The NY/LA tickets went on sale today. Nationwide expansion tix still go on sale the same aforementioned date (September 23) (September 11).)

Terrifier 3

• CINEVERSE (Cineverse Chairman and CEO Chris McGurk added: "Terrifier 3 is poised to exceed the performance of its predecessor. The momentum behind the film, combined with incredible early ticket sales and enthusiasm from fans, suggests that we're heading for an unprecedented release that could challenge major studio horror titles this season." Early tracking indicates that ticket sales for Terrifier 3 are outpacing major studio releases (September 23).)

• CompoundTheGains (Just keeps creeping up on tickets sold. Two theaters are now well above 200 tickets sold for Thursday in California. One has 3 showings and the other just opened up a fifth showing for Thursday and I expect it to fill up quickly. These same theaters just broke 400+ tickets sold Thursday-Sunday and each only have 4 showings total (1 or 2 showings per night) for Friday-Sunday available to pre-buy currently (September 30). NEED more showings in Rhode Island as theaters are getting full for Thursday night!!!! | Michigan sales seem really really good to me. Michigan is by far the least tickets sold per theater or showing of the 8 states I’m following but also had slightly more growth this last time vs CA or MA that I’ve gotten around to updating recently. These presales per showing are way ahead of other movies being tracked but doesn’t have as many showings either. The hope is the sales keep coming and expand into Friday-Sunday more and more. Terrifier 2 had long legs for eight weeks. It will be interesting how the sales arc goes this time. What is clear is that it is gonna beat Terrifier 2 numbers and very likely quite significantly. | Only a couple new theaters added to Massachusetts presale tracking since last update (I’m sticking with my original 21 theaters to track) and no new showings in these 21 theaters for Thursday. Some of these showings are packed. Hopefully the chains are watching the presales and make sure they provide enough capacity to maximize ticket sales (September 27). I do think the % of tickets sold of some of the showings may drive more tickets for weekend showings soon and as we get closer to October 10 we may see less “growth” in Thursday sales because the theaters are simply full at some locations so people will chose a showing on a later date (September 26). What do people make of Terrifier 3 pre-sales? Universal Cinema AMC at CityWalk Hollywood with 248 tickets sold opening weekend. AMC Burbank 16 with 218 tickets sold opening weekend. AMC’s in CA for first showing only of Thursday night: Norwalk—over 60 tickets sold, Montclair and Ontario both over 50, Orange, Fullerton, City of Industry all over 40 tickets sold for first opening showing. Edinburg Texas AMC with over 60 tickets sold in first Thursday showing. Lake Buena Vista Florida AMC close to 70 tickets sold for first Thursday showing. Methuen MA AMC 50+ tickets first showing Thursday. Danvers MA over 40 tickets. You find these numbers scattered throughout the country and still being over 3 weeks from opening (September 18).)

• filmpalace (This is actually selling really well in the theaters I'm tracking as well. Not sure how much of a fan rush is behind the sales, but if it can keep up the pace, I think it might actually have a shot at an opening weekend around 10M (September 26).)

• Ryan C (Not sure how big this will be, but it definitely has potential for a $5M+ opening if more theaters get to book the film and the number of showtimes gets an increase. For now though, it's absolutely looking like this will be a mini-breakout sequel (September 26).)

Smile 2 Average Thursday Comp: $3.46M

• filmpalace (Around 60% of sales are for the fan event, which is on that Thursday as well. Not a bad start (September 30).)

• Ryan C (As of now though, this isn't looking too bad for the first day of pre-sales. I would expect this one to be a lot more walk-up heavy as I don't think the fanbase for the first Smile would be the one to buy tickets as soon as they go on sale (September 30).)

• TheFlatLannister ($2.91M THU Comp. Pretty good start to presales. If it stays at this level, could be around $30M OW (September 30).)

• vafrow ($4.0M THU Comp. Not a bad first day (October 1). Smile 2 showtimes are up on MTC4. It's only getting single screens per location, and with a couple of exceptions, only regular showings. AQP:D1 was getting second screens at bigger locations, and that's when the market was more crowded. I thought Smile 2 was carrying stronger expectations on it but at least this chain is a little hesitant (September 30).)

Venom: The Last Dance Average Thursday Comp: $6.52M

• Charlie Jatinder ($7.13M THU Comp. Seems like no interest for Venom 3. Hardly any sales in first data I am seeing. It's been like 3 hours since sale started right? (October 1).)

• filmpalace (Don't have comps yet, but this seems like a solid start for something that will have most of its sales in the final days (according to those that tracked the previous Venom movies) (October 1).)

• Flip ($7.34M THU Comp. Not great, so it will have to rely on having an insane finish to reach the $100m mark (October 1).)

• leoh (In NY and LA it’s also selling well. I have just taken a look at Orlando major theaters and it’s also selling well over there. Thursday 5pm Venom Fan Event screenings are doing particularly well, with already over 50% occupancy most of them. ATP will also be high since it’s taking in all PLFs and IMAX. | Venom Fan Event is at Thursday at 5pm. It’s listed separately on Fandango and AMC. It’s selling really well both in LA and New York considering it’s been on sale for only 6h and all of them are IMAX screenings (October 1). I was checking Fandango and theaters allocations and it’s insane, it seems it’ll take over every single premium large format nationwide (including AMC Prime). However, there’s no information when I search for Florida theaters (September 30).)

• Ryan C (This also includes the "Opening Night Fan Events". It's good that the actual traditional 2D, 3D, and PLF showtimes have outsold those Fan Event screenings, but that's mainly due to this getting quite a number of showtimes per theater. Still, unlike Deadpool and Wolverine or Joker: Folie à Deux (which did sell more than Venom on its first day of pre-sales), I'm expecting walk-up business to take this film over the finish line. If that happens, then we shouldn't be hitting the panic button just yet. I don't think this is doing $100M, but if the movie is just good enough for audiences, it should open pretty close to the range of the first Venom ($80M) (October 1).)

• TheFlatLannister ($5.10M THU Comp. Not a bad start, but also not a great start for a CBM. Doesn't feel remotely like a $100M OW to me, but we shall see. Behind Joker 2 at the same point in time (October 1).)

• vafrow (I just set up my sheet for Venom: The Last Dance and was looking at early numbers. I have some good news. This will be an easy track for anyone doing manual counts.😟 (October 1).)

Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated September 8):

OCTOBER

• (Oct. 1) Presales Start [Nightmare Before Christmas + Saturday Night + Venom: The Last Dance]

• (Oct. 2) Early Access [Piece by Piece (Dolby Cinema)]

• (Oct. 3) Thursday Previews [Joker: Folie á Deux + Monster Summer + White Bird: A Wonder Story]

• (Oct. 4) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Furious 7]

• (Oct. 10) Presales Start [Anora]

• (Oct. 10) Thursday Previews [The Apprentice + My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next + Piece by Piece + Saturday Night + Terrifier 3]

• (Oct. 11) Presales Start [Wicked Part 1]

• (Oct. 11) Opening Day [Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas Re-Release]

• (Oct. 11) AMC Fan Fave Re-Release [Coco]

• (Oct. 17) Thursday Previews [Goodrich + Smile 2]

• (Oct. 18) Opening Day [Hocus Pocus]

• (Oct. 24) Thursday Previews [Venom: The Last Dance]

Presale Tracking Posts:

August 27

August 29

August 31

September 3

September 11

September 14

September 16

September 18

September 21

September 24

September 26

September 29

Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.